In Search of a Punk Rock Ethos to Disrupt Healthcare

In Search of a Punk Rock Ethos to Disrupt Healthcare

In 1977, the Sex Pistols released their first and only studio album.

Raw, rude and a rejection of everything rock 'n' roll, 'Never Mind the Bollocks' became the battle cry of UK Punk. With a legacy that loud, one album was enough.

Punk was hardcore Zen.

It was a completely different operating philosophy that undermined the integrity of the culture in which it was introduced. It delivered an innovation shock and sparked network effects long before that concept was conceptualized. Punk was a new industry model, one that changed and challenged those deeply embedded habits of thought which give a system its sense of direction and identity.

Or to frame it in terms of today's lexicon, Punk was a strategic transformation. Nothing was sacred. You could lose yourself in a reactionary had-it-up-to-here fury while also fully savoring the rupture, the novelty of the moment as a cathartic split from convention. Punk was completely different wattage.

We are now in the 54th year of the official US healthcare "crisis."

For more than two generations, ballooning health care costs have been a source of concern, confusion, complexity and impending catastrophe when, on July 10, 1969, President Richard Nixon proclaimed, "We face a massive crisis in this area." Without prompt administrative and legislative action, he added at a special press briefing, "we will have a breakdown in our medical care system."

Failure takes time.

Healthcare is an unfixable economic system, at least in its current configuration of power and control. Perpetual "crisis" is sustained by structural stalemate and the 'organized irresponsibility' of a massive flywheel. Managed by expert knowledge of the past, trapped by technical debt and led with obsolete narratives and narrow framings, the "mother of all markets" spins around itself as an infinitely recursive problem. The writing is overwritten by the same assemblage of words, a 'sea of sameness' in which the content and communications is powerless to punch through, much less inspire or persuade.

We are at war with cliche.

And rather than aiming for new storylines, the lead actors perform similar roles with exaggerated gestures and ornamental waves to “patient centricity”, and the audience knows ahead of time at which points to boo and when to cheer.

The bold imagination + big action skill for the next generation of health market leaders is the ability to creatively explore and conceptualize new territory, quickly assemble and sell the intellectual viewpoint, and then construct the health infrastructure -- the new industry ecosystem -- to own the space. In other words, tear it down and start over with new system vision. Chop the knot. Sweep the old concepts out of the saddle. Organize markets to interoperate within the context of new economic systems.

It's the ‘competitive mindset’ that needs a big rethink, in every industry + government market, which is all of them.

Where conventional strategy plays the player, strategy at a system level plays the board. Particularly if the objective is to “crack” a $4.3 trillion industrial complex, which, using one recent news-like example, Google is attempting “in its battle with Microsoft” to bring recent advances in artificial intelligence to healthcare (see: In Battle With Microsoft, Google Bets on Medical AI Program to Crack Healthcare Industry here).

Let’s say Google/Alphabet repositions itself as a keystone in a new industry ecosystem, part of a ‘design management team’ holding together a new system of “diabetes” marketsGoogle (the $300 billion technology services market) + Dexcom (the $17 billion continuous glucose monitoring market) + Eli Lilly and Company (the $100 billion GLP-1 drug market) + BASF (the $23 billion personalized nutrition market). What happens creatively is Google/Alphabet now invents new economic space for it to beat Microsoft acting and selling itself alone as a technical input to current operating models.

Where Microsoft competes on technical value, Google’s basis of competition is on ‘ecosystem value’.

Market Access Innovation

An economic system that is optimized to churn out strategies, markets and technical inputs to make the consumption of health services more efficient is impossible to “fix”. The gravitational pull is too strong. The jungle of complexity is too dense. The technical debt is too extreme. The legacy narratives too powerful.

Simpler to chop the Knot.

That’s the nut of things from economists Liran Einav of Stanford and Amy Finkelstein of MIT for how to “transform” the multi-dimensional dysfunctionality that is the $4 trillion apparatus of healthcare in the United States – and it’s detailed in their new book, We’ve Got You Covered: Rebooting American Health Care. They argue that our healthcare system was never deliberately designed around the production of affordable health, but rather pieced together to deal with issues as they become politically relevant.

“Few of us need convincing that the American [way of healthcare] needs reform. But many of the existing proposals focus on expanding one relatively successful piece of the system or building in piecemeal additions,” they explain. Nearly all of these proposals miss the bigger point.

Einav and Finkelstein believe it’s time to stop putting Band-Aids on a system they diagnose as “incoherent, uncoordinated, inefficient, and unplanned.” The result is a sprawling yet arbitrary and inadequate mess.

The ‘Production of Health’

A new test for market access innovation is how well commercial teams understand 'strategic competition' as an enduring condition, something to be managed, not a problem to be solved. And the skill to make that happen sits on core principles of constructive, collaborative, creative and results-oriented leadership. In other words, the real "battle" is about producing better outcomes, not consuming more inputs.

Roadmaps to ‘the next 100 billion’ in growth from the largest and most lucrative market on Earth starts by leapfrogging complexity and with new system vision. And if you buy into common sense, that it's not just one market that determines health “value” but an infinite flow of them, then a strategic advantage goes to leaders with the skills to harness a carnival of markets and manage them as a new economic system (“ecosystem”).

Winners have the better vision of serving (and sustaining) the ‘production of affordable health' over time.

Fragmentation is a design problem: there are islands of features everywhere from too many vendors wandering on the edges, pushing point solutions to small problems. The challenge is pulling it all together in a way that a whole system is born and becomes focused on generative value. The new data that flows from this new system, and then refined into specialized cognition, is the thing that generates new business value, supports population health and guarantees performance.

Data on purpose. You design for the analytics you want to capture.

Everything “digital” plays a supporting part in this story, not a lead. Technology is a means to dissolve boundaries, enable new positioning, remove friction and re-configure entire business systems, practically overnight. It's not about optimizing the past, but intentionally displacing the status quo.

“We wrote this book because, after studying U.S. health policies for almost two decades, Amy and I realized that we have something to say about the big picture,” says Einav. “And because we are outside of the political world, we think we have a fresh perspective and can maybe move the conversation in the right direction.”

It’s the kind of creative destruction the Sex Pistols would appreciate 🤘

/ jgs

John G. Singer is Executive Director of Blue Spoon Consulting, the global leader in strategy and innovation at a system level. Blue Spoon specializes in constructing new industry ecosystems. Disclaimer: Blue Spoon does not have a financial relationship with any brand mentioned in this article.

Are Band-Aids "Healthcare"?

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Are Band-Aids "Healthcare"?

Josephine Knight Dickson was always getting minor nicks and burns while working in the kitchen. And while this may seem like no big deal these days, back when Knight Dickson was prepping her family's meals in 1920, “there were no good options for bandaging such small injuries hygienically,” says Margaret Gurowitz, Johnson & Johnson’s in-house historian. “And this was before antibiotics, so infections posed a serious risk.”

Knight Dickson likely resorted to what many did at the time: winding a strip of fabric around her wound and tying a knot on the end to secure it — a hack that was neither sterile nor likely to withstand hand-washing. Her husband, Earle, was employed as a cotton buyer for Johnson & Johnson; he noticed that the gauze and adhesive tape she used would soon fall off her active fingers, so he decided to invent something that would stay in place and protect small wounds better.

He took a piece of gauze and attached it to the center of a piece of tape then covered the product with crinoline to keep it sterile. This ready-to-go product allowed his wife to dress her wounds without assistance, and when Earle's boss James Johnson saw the invention, he decided to manufacture band-aids to the public and make Earle a vice-president of the company.

This invention has remained relatively unchanged in its nearly 100-year history.

Band-Aid was a new technology born from someone who sought a better, practical solution to an everyday "healthcare" problem, resulting in the first commercial dressing for small wounds that consumers could apply with ease. BAND-AID® Brand Adhesive Bandages have become a staple in first-aid kits and bathroom cabinets throughout the world, are available over-the-counter at retail and community pharmacies, and through smart brand curation, J&J created a market that continues to thrive today (the global market for medical tapes and bandages in terms of revenue is worth around $7 billion).

Earle was inducted into the National Inventor's Hall of Fame in 2017.

Doctor Walmart Will See You Now

The Economist last week published an article (“Doctor Walmart Will See You Now”) exploring one of the accelerated evolutions underway in healthcare in the United States: big box retailers like Walmart and Costco, retail pharmacies like Walgreen’s and CVS Health, and variety stores like Dollar General, positioning themselves for new growth in the $312 billion market for primary care, which includes becoming care providers themselves. From The Economist’s reporting:

"Since 2019, Walmart has opened 32 of these “health centres” in five states; by the end of next year it plans to more than double that number, and expand into two more states.

Walmart is not the only big company expanding its medical offerings. Earlier this year Amazon acquired One Medical, a concierge practice (meaning clients pay an annual membership fee) with offices in cities across America. Dollar General, a discount retailer, has set up a partnership with DocGo, which runs mobile health clinics, and has launched a pilot programme at three shops in Tennessee. Walgreens and CVS Health, both retail pharmacies, have robust primary-care offerings; last year more than 5.5m patients visited a CVS MinuteClinic, making it one of the biggest providers in the country, and earlier this year CVS completed its acquisition of Oak Street Health, an elderly-focused primary-care provider with offices in 21 states. What do these companies see in the medical business?

The simple answer is money.

Americans spend a stunning amount of it on health: roughly 18 percent of GDP in 2021, far exceeding the rich-country average of about 10 percent and more than double the ratio of some, such as South Korea, with healthier and longer-lived populations. Americans’ spending is forecast to rise by 5.4 percent per year over the next eight years, outpacing economic growth and accounting for almost 20 percent of GDP by 2031."

I posted the article in my LinkedIn feed, with this accompanying commentary:

"Patients" visit a pharmacy an average of 35 times a year, compared to just four visits to see a medical provider. And as the image used here in this article shows, those "patients" are probably women, who make 80 percent of healthcare decisions in the home, and the "patient visits" are in fact "family visits".

The next healthcare works with new economic flows powered by market innovation and new storylines of "value" centered on 'continuous health engagement'. 

And there's nobody better positioned to shape this evolution than retail pharmacies.

"Those that get it right will increase their share of the immense tide of money sloshing around America's bloated and inefficient healthcare system, and may also, incidentally, keep people healthier."

This brief burst of business writing sparked a number of comments and criticisms and contending perspectives, all professional and respectful, all necessary, and all still available in my feed. They fell into four general categories, although they were bound with a common thread:

  • Expert knowledge (doctors, surgeons and nurses) who reacted to the threat and/or encroachment of “Doctor Walmart” into their scope of services (and, presumably business interests) — this is, in fact, a legislative platform for the American Medical Association. “The AMA is opposing legislation introduced in the U.S. House of Representatives that would inappropriately allow pharmacists to furnish services that would otherwise be covered if they had been provided by a physician, despite pharmacists not having the same extensive education and training as physicians.”

  • Expert knowledge (doctors, surgeons and nurses) who challenged the “scientific merit” of the data I used comparing the annual flow of “patient” visits into a retail pharmacy vs. into the office of a medical provider. The real head-scratcher, though, was the published data deployed to challenge mine — here and here — only reinforced the central argument: patients visit their retail/community pharmacies a lot more than they visit their physicians. (For more “science” into the system value of retail clinics, here’s research from RAND Corporation.)

  • Expert knowledge (doctors, surgeons and nurses) who positioned retail pharmacies as the place “I go when I need to have a better selection of snacks while on a road trip than a convenience store.”

  • Expert knowledge (doctors, surgeons and nurses) who challenged my definitions of “healthcare”

"No A Band-Aid Is Not Healthcare"

There was one exchange, though, that struck me as, well, a little weird. But it was also revealing because it illuminated the three-body problem in healthcare, the nature of “expert failure” and the language of control, and what happens when common sense leaves the room: the notion that Band-Aids are not “healthcare”. Here is the exchange:

Poster:

“If a family is seeking medications at 9x the rate they are seeking medical advice then we have a serious problem with how we are approaching illness.”

Me:

“Why do you assume they’re “seeking medications”?

Reply:

“Thought we were talking about pharmacies in the context of healthcare, if we are just talking about where people visit most frequently we should be calling these grocery stores what they are.” [Note: the comment about band-aids has since been deleted by the poster]

Me:

Are Band-Aids not healthcare?

Reply:

“No, medical dressings are not healthcare visits when the comparison is a doctors visit, those are vastly different needs and very poor comparators. Maybe we are talking about two different things and I’ve completely missed your comparison. When I read your comparison, my interpretation was that you were saying “people visit pharmacies for healthcare related issues at a rate 9x compared to visiting medical professionals”, but it seems more like you’re just stating absolute visits regardless of indication. So you would look to add 4 visits or roughly 10% traffic to a retail pharmacy by adding medical providers, assuming those are non-specialist visits.”

Which another healthcare professional was quick to underscore:

“John G. Singer No, a band-aid is not healthcare.

And my question in response, which was (and is) left unanswered:

Why not?

Retail Pharmacies Are Evolution Accelerated

We have been slow to learn that systems -- all systems -- generate their own momentum.

However you define “healthcare” (and whether you choose to get sucked into the “patient-centered” vs. “consumer-centered” argument), its essence does not reside in the ‘clinical setting’ and under the control of any one board-certified healthcare professional, but in the community as a whole, where the $1.7 trillion pharmacy market is best positioned to serve and sustain a ‘patient-to-consumer loop’ of continuous health engagement. The basis of competition and differentiation is neither “patient” or “consumer” but family health experience.

And this slingshot to a new health economy starts with new words to think new thoughts.

“Language accelerates learning and creation by permitting communication and coordination,” writes Kevin Kelly in What Technology Wants, his provocative book that turns the conversation about technology on its head by viewing technology as a natural system, an extension of biological evolution. “The chief advantage of language is not communication but autogeneration. Language is a trick that allows the mind to question itself; a magic mirror that reveals to the mind what the mind thinks; a handle that turns a mind into a tool. Until we tame the mind with an organization tool capable of communicating to itself, we have stray thoughts without a narrative. We have a feral mind. We have smartness without a tool.”

Healthcare has normalized cliche. It has stray thoughts without a narrative.

And it should be clear to everyone that new concepts, more than new technologies, are the real tools for “transformation” in healthcare. It is the words themselves that are the source of structural stalemate, but also the source material for novel strategic thinking and market access innovation, the kind of creative leadership to invent with purpose and to position outcomes as the economic objective upon which to compete.

I do agree with the poster that we (i.e., the world) have a “serious problem with how we are approaching illness.” But “fixing” strategic atrophy starts with new positioning and flipping the script, including thinking about healthcare within the context of pharmacies, rather than “pharmacies in the context of healthcare.” 🤘

/ jgs

John G. Singer is Executive Director of Blue Spoon Consulting, a global leader in strategy and innovation at a system level. Blue Spoon specializes in constructing new industry ecosystems.  


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A New System of Markets in Diabetes

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You Can't "Fix" an Embedded Economic System

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You Can't "Fix" an Embedded Economic System

"The Ouroboros is a mythical animal which swallows itself, starting with the tail. It epitomizes paradox and is a pretty good emblem for US [healthcare] at the moment. Autocannibalism is not something anyone should try at home."

A great passage from Jonathan Guthrie recently in the Financial Times that, while describing the ‘value paradox’ in banking, exposes a cognitive problem management teams across industries confront when trying to make the magic leap to the next growth curve: As a general rule, you can't "fix" an embedded economic system. Its feedback loops -- infinitely recursive, infinitely complex and impossible to decode in a way that lends itself to one-slide explanations, linear strategies or sales into short-attention span theater -- will be in control of things and running the show, buried deep into the bedrock, set in motion decades ago, sustained by systemic (mis)management comfortable buying solutions to “optimize” legacy operating models. 

But if the objective is “radical transformation” and large-scale change, market innovation enabled by technology, it will be simpler to chop the knot and start with new system vision. This is about a new form of strategic power intentionally designed to degrade or displace the status quo in an organized and persistent way.

And the model to learn from is India.

In a little over a decade, the country has built a portfolio of digital public infrastructures that have changed its citizens' lives. And it did this not by trying to repair complexity, but by enabling it and giving it direction, starting with a clean slate, creating an entirely new foundation(s) upon which others can build new economic systems (“ecosystems”).

“The Indian sales pitch is attractive,” says The Economist in its coverage of how India is positioning itself as an enabler of new economic systems to developing countries (see How India is using digital technology to project power). “Starting without legacy systems such as credit cards and desktop computers, developing countries can leapfrog the West. The digital prize, as India has shown, is a means to accelerate connectedness, social-service provision, growth prospects and, ultimately, the building of a state and civic identity. Significant investment is required. But, as India’s example also suggests, it is likely to be cost-effective.”

“The key idea behind DPI is not digitalisation of specific public services,” reads a recent IMF paper. “But rather building minimal digital building blocks that can be used modularly…to enable society-wide transformation.” Central to that vision is the notion of private innovators and firms accessing and adding to the infrastructure, as they do in India. DPI is “infrastructure that can enable not just government transactions and welfare but also private innovation and competition,” says C.V. Madhukar of Co-Develop, a fund recently launched to help countries interested in building DPI pool resources.

It’s big ambition and big innovation born from systems thinking, the original 'large language model' for strategy to see and compete differently. And the faster that the West can start working with this understanding and mode of being, the faster it can stop the commercial withering and strategic atrophy that has come to dominate the PowerPoints. 

Finding Strategic Fit

The Problem everyone is struggling with is positioning and communicating strategic fit to a world transitioning from Newtonian economics to a world of quantum economics, where two things that seem to be in opposition can be true at the same time.

“....In the disorganization and the chaos of the free-for-all,” says Julie Plec, the creator of The Vampire Diaries, “the foundational pieces of the business that made it work for everyone disappeared. The solutions weirdly all revert back to what used to be on some level. And that is not good because certainly it felt pretty fucking broken at that time, too,” says Plec in an article on the collapse of the streaming market. “It’s not like just returning to the old status quo is the answer. We’re at the center of the tornado right now, and it seems like it’s whipping all around us, and I don’t think anybody really understands how to make it stop.”

We are in the midst of a massive transformation coming at us with a speed and level of intensity that no one has faced before. Society has changed. The underlying economics have changed. Business + government has changed. The information environment has changed.

The world around us is now within us — there is no “out there” that separates the observer from the observed. And the deep chaos and complexity of the moment are not going away; if anything, they're only increasing exponentially, becoming permanent features of the landscape.

The skill in short supply is novel strategic thinking, a whole new taxonomy to help #leadership navigate the currents shaping major directional change in the world with different vision, a new category of ideas from which to create and compete.

We are, it seems, collectively stuck in a low-Earth orbit of small ideas and zero-sum competition, trapped by the kinetics of cliche and linear solutioning, “space junk” and orbital debris spinning around obsolete definitions of economic progress. Everyone is launching their own satellites, leaving it to someone else ‘out there’ somewhere to manage their interaction and coordination, to figure out the paradox of value alignment.

The art of shaping ‘strategic fit’ (and, conversely, preventing strategic collapse) is to not even bother trying to “fix” an embedded economic system. It’s an impossible task.

Modern strategies think in terms of biology and ecology, an orientation for creativity and competition that works with the laws of nature, not against it, as an infinitely recursive cycle of production and progressive integration of contexts and capabilities. The end state is a new economic system feeding itself with its own energy, a process where markets self-generate and new pools of value form in the space ‘in between’ the words.

The answer is to start in a new orbit for strategy and innovation, at a system level, with new industry + government ecosystems that encourage and enable the interplay of markets and new storylines of value, ‘large language’ concepts to guide executive perspective and sales presentations that cover a larger surface area.

Which is what India is doing so well.

/ jgs

John G. Singer is Executive Director of Blue Spoon Consulting, a global leader in ecosystem-centered market strategies. Blue Spoon delivers a Punk Rock ethos of disruption. It was the first to apply systems theory to solve complex market access and integration challenges in the pharmaceutical industry.

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Not Mind-Stretching Enough

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Not Mind-Stretching Enough

Originality in policymaking is hard. Predicting how a new policy will work in practice, its strategic effect, is even harder. And maybe the hardest thing of all is knowing when to adjust a ‘go-to-market vision’ after it engages with reality, to sift the signals and understand the feedback loops set in motion by a new theory.

The world has reached its Omega Point, a place of maximum complexity and unification.

We have effectively killed off the independent sphere: there is no “out there” that separates the observer from the observed, no clean breaks between systems, no “center” around which to congeal and hold things together, to position the PowerPoints that pretend to portray prescience. What’s changed is the world around us is now within us. The future-that-is-already-here-and-evenly-distributed is featureless, a topography notable more for its unstable character, a place of psychic disintegration, hyper-fragmentation, perpetual crisis and high-velocity evolution.

The European Union last week published a long-awaited draft of its proposed overhaul of laws governing the EU’s $148 billion pharmaceutical market, aimed at reviving investment and boosting access to affordable drugs at a time when health budgets have been drained by the costs of treating COVID-19. “It’s the biggest overhaul of medical laws in two decades, aimed at ensuring all Europeans have access to both innovative new treatments and generic drugs, and ending huge divergences in access and price between countries,” EU health commissioner Stella Kyriakides told reporters after publication.

"There are many things we can do [at the EU level] to influence the ecosystem of pricing," echoed European Commission Vice President Margaritis Schinas, describing the rewrite of pharmaceutical legislation as "epic" and "enormous".

I don’t see the epicness.

If dragged into the daylight and subject to sustained challenge, the EU’s drug reform feels under-conceptualized: it covers a small “surface area” of the $16.6 trillion in EU GDP that is dependent on the ‘production of affordable health’ as the foundation of all economic activity.

Schinas uses the word “ecosystem” in the same buzzy way that many do, as a new word to slap onto an old thing, to replace “complexity” and feign expansiveness. Like “value” in healthcare, “ecosystem” is the vague word that has become the vogue word — here’s the Google Trends search for “business ecosystem” from 2004 to 2014, which I got from a piece in Forbes (The Next Big Business Buzzword: Ecosystem?):

But the EU’s strategic vision is not qualitatively unique, the sort of root and branch reform that will generate a different kind of economic system (“ecosystem”). It is the end result of a conventional thought process that assumed away complexity and the entanglement of connections between markets, and between markets and governments, staying safely in the narrow and well-trodden lane of “drug pricing” as the easy-to-grasp and conventional economic concept for how to think about improving “access” to healthcare and lowering its “cost.”

At a system level, the EU’s drug reform is also policy born from mental fantasy: the idea that any one piece can be isolated from its context and measured with precision. The ‘drug market’ is an input, not an outcome.

“The method of freezing the frame, and including in it only measurable moves, works well enough in the analysis of individual markets in isolation, but it breaks down when applied to a whole economy,” explains Robert Skideslky, a British economic historian in What’s Wrong With Economics?: A Primer for the Perplexed, his critique of mainstream economic theories. Skidelsky takes aim at the way that economics is taught and practiced, particularly models which are “beautiful to behold but of little practical relevance.” Economists, he says, “are forced by the requirements of their own reasoning to squeeze their explanations of human behavior into absurdly narrow channels.”

“Luck Surface Area” by Visualize Value

It’s almost as if economic theory assumes away reality.

Economists almost never start with the facts; there are too many. Their general approach is to represent individual choices as parallel straight lines….to ‘make the crooked timber of humanity straight’….by expanding the zone of exclusion in order to make the subject matter of the enquiry “work” within the requirements of the model. So the thing being studied is forced to fit the math, the analytical model serving as a starting point that leads to an unrealistic destination: that an 'optimum equilibrium' is out there waiting to be discovered and proven.

Healthcare is a ‘nested market’ — its main feature is the density of structural linkages and interactions that cut across domains. By not understanding how to create with complexity, we are missing the moment to develop policy for market interoperability, to cohere the ‘commercial determinants of health’ in a way that positions the ‘production of affordable health’ as a new economic objective.

Stuck in a Low-Earth Orbit

We are, it seems, collectively stuck in a low-Earth orbit of small ideas and zero-sum competition, trapped by the kinetics of cliche and linear solutioning, “space junk” and orbital debris spinning around obsolete definitions of economic progress. Everyone is launching their own satellites, leaving it to someone else ‘out there’ somewhere to manage their interaction and coordination, to figure out the problem of value alignment and outcomes for marketspace shared by everyone.

Assume everybody starts wrong. The art of shaping ‘strategic fit’ (and, conversely, preventing strategic collapse) is to not even bother trying to be right at the outset, or investing too much in expert knowledge of the past. The former is an impossible task; the latter is an inadequate compass to navigate the known unknowable that everyone knows.

Across the arc of human + technology activity and ambition, the ‘large language model’ to shape large-scale change is fluency in systems thinking. It is semantically and conceptually agile, transcontextual and value neutral, able to change orientation as vision and theory interact with the new and unfamiliar environment it created.

Modern strategies think in terms of biology and ecology, an orientation for creativity and competition that works with the laws of nature, not against it, as an infinitely recursive cycle of production and progressive integration of contexts and capabilities. The end state is a new economic system feeding itself with its own energy, a process where markets self-generate and new pools of value form in the space ‘in between’ the words (“ecosystem-centered market strategy”).

Increased life expectancy is the secret sauce behind economic growth. But our vocabulary is ill-suited to guide us through multiple shifting paradigms, wicked problems for a world that has no center and no clean breaks between systems. We need a different orientation to link economic health with public health.

If the objective is outcomes, strategy to shape competitive advantage and financial stability of health and human services organizations, which means everyone, then our innovation agendas will need to start bigger.

In a speech last week, Michael D Higgins, the President of Ireland, gave a blistering critique of policy born from obsolete economic concepts:

“Many economists remain stuck in an inexorable growth narrative, or at best a ‘green growth’ narrative,” he said. “A fixation on a narrowly defined efficiency, productivity, perpetual growth has resulted in a discipline that has become blinkered to the ecological challenge – the ecological catastrophe – we now face.

“That narrow focus constitutes an empty economics which has lost touch with everything meaningful, a social science which no longer is connected, or even attempts to be connected, with the social issues and objectives for which it was developed over centuries. It is incapable of offering solutions to glaring inadequacies of provision as to public needs, devoid of vision.”

The answer is to start at the other end, with outcomes and the interplay of markets positioned within new storylines of value, ‘large language’ concepts to guide executive perspective, to shape novel roadmaps across a larger surface area 🤘

/ jgs

John G. Singer is Executive Director of Blue Spoon Consulting, a global leader in ecosystem-centered market strategies. Blue Spoon delivers a Punk Rock ethos of disruption. It was the first to apply systems theory to solve complex market access and integration challenges in the pharmaceutical industry.

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The Year "Digital" Crested as a Magical Wave

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The Year "Digital" Crested as a Magical Wave

Mark 2022 as the year the magical wave of "digital" crested.

Technology is never decisive, and is often strategically distracting. It can be expensive confusing new technology for a modern strategy. And it can be lethal buying the sell that new technology is the path to progress. Brooke Masters, the US Financial editor at the Financial Times, yesterday in her year-end piece (Three ways Big Tech got it wrong):

It’s time to unlearn the lessons of Big Tech.

For 20 years, the Silicon Valley giants and their peers have set the standard for corporate success with a simple set of strategies: innovate rapidly and splash out to woo customers. Speed rather than perfection, and reach rather than profits proved key to establishing dominant positions that allowed them to fend off, squash or buy potential rivals.

Entrepreneurs everywhere took note, and an assumption that scaling up and achieving profitability would be the easy part took hold far beyond the internet platforms where these ideas originated.

Investors, desperate for growth and yield amid historically low interest rates, were all too happy to prioritise the promise of growth over short-term earnings. During the pandemic, the trend became extreme, as the shares of companies with big dreams and equally large losses soared to dizzying heights.

Those days are over. Inflation and rising central bank rates have changed the financial calculus. When investors can earn measurable returns from bank deposits and top-rated bonds, speculative investments that promise growth lose their edge. The share prices of Google, Amazon and Facebook are down between 40 and 60 per cent year on year, and their younger emulators have done even worse. A Goldman Sachs index of unprofitable technology companies has fallen by 77 per cent since its February 2021 peak.

There is also a growing sense that most important challenges of our time — improving health, cutting carbon emissions, basically anything that involves a real world rather than purely digital product — will require a different approach.

Indeed.

And where tech entrepreneurs, and the press outlets that adore them, go to sell and cover the next new possibility is a big question. As Silicon Valley works to design the world in its image, reconfiguring our ideals in order to fit their business models, it’s easy to bask in the eternal sunshine of it all, to simply sit back and let the warm glow consume every corner of our consciousness.

“Silicon Valley is good at "reframing” questions, problems and solutions,” explains Adrian Daub in What Tech Calls Thinking, his lively dismantling of the ideas that form the intellectual bedrock of Silicon Valley. “Equally important to Silicon Valley’s world-altering innovation are the language and ideas it uses to explain and justify itself. And it’s easy to come away with the sense that the original way of stating the problem is made irrelevant by the reframing.”

“Consider how much mileage the tech industry has gotten out of its technological determinism. The industry likes to imbue the changes it yields with the character of natural law: If I or my team don’t do this, someone else’s will. Or consider how important words like “disruption” and “innovation” are to the sway the tech industry holds over our collective imagination. How they implicitly cast you as a stick-in -the-mud if you ask how much revolution someone is capable of when that person represents billions in venture capital investment.”

Edison's great advantage was in systems thinking.

Writing on a century of American innovation and technological enthusiasm, Thomas P. Hughes (American Genesis: A Century of Invention and Technological Enthusiasm, 1870-1970) described invention as the process of solving new problems. Radical success, he said, comes at a system level, from striking breakthroughs or improvements in nascent systems rather than from the incremental improvements in well-established technological ones.

“In general, today’s accounts of the information revolution focus upon artifacts, such as computers and the Internet. This approach is myopic. We should broaden our concept of the information revolution. The other industrial revolutions involved far more than hardware. Besides technical artifacts, these earlier revolutions involved political, economic, social, organizational and cultural changes….”

If not completely irrelevant, the word "digital" is incidental as a bullet in the PowerPoint. "Disruption" as a war cry hasn't delivered economic growth at scale, and the mind-numbing flow of headlines from the media on what technology "can" do have all failed to spark the kind of systemic change in direction needed to sweep aside the status quo.

Which is another way of saying that the shape and texture of transformational visions will come from discovering new language to frame action, and new management techniques that dissolve and work horizontally across organizational, market, industry, state and even national boundaries (‘ecosystem-centered market strategies’).

Success will take strategic imagination, a new kind of “innovation” and cognitive pattern that goes against the very fabric of experience that has up to know given most people, industries and countries their identity. It happens by solving the multi-dimensional dysfunctionality that is the interplay between markets and governments.

For the next phase, smart strategy starts with disassembling the technology industry narrative that pretends to be novel but is actually an old motif playing dress-up in a hoodie. We are in desperate need of a different kind of creative leadership, a new economic theory, captured perfectly via Nicholas Carr in his blog, Rough Type:

"Facebook, it’s now widely accepted, has been a calamity for the world. The obvious solution, most people would agree, is to get rid of Facebook. Mark Zuckerberg has a different idea: Get rid of the world.

Cyberutopians have been dreaming about replacing the physical world with a virtual one since Zuckerberg was in Oshkosh B’gosh overalls. The desire is rooted in misanthropy — meatspace, yuck — but it is also deeply idealistic, Platonic even. The world as we know it, the thinking goes, is messy and chaotic, illogical and unpredictable. It is a place of death and decay, where mind — the true essence of the human — is subordinate to the vagaries of the flesh. Cyberspace liberates the mind from its bodily trappings. It is a place of pure form. Everything in it reflects the logic and order inherent to computer programming.”

In other words:

What tech calls “value” needs transformation 🤘

/ jgs

John G. Singer is Executive Director of Blue Spoon Consulting, a global leader in strategy and innovation at a system level. Blue Spoon was the first to apply systems theory to solve complex market access and integration challenges in the pharmaceutical industry.

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AbbVie Leaves the Herd

AbbVie Leaves the Herd

“After this summer's major drug pricing reform that left pharma lobbying groups high and dry, one major player has turned its back on prominent trade groups in Washington. AbbVie is leaving both the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA) and the Biotechnology Innovation Organization (BIO), plus the Business Roundtable”

FiercePharma, December 16, 2022

Renovation is required to the PhRMA storyline of value.

In any industry at any given time, there is a theoretical boundary of performance for which the operational state of the art is attained. This boundary is called the productivity frontier, which Michael Porter defined as the “sum of all existing best practices at any given time.” For the the pharmaceutical industry worldwide, strategy centered on defending “pricing” in the “drug market” has reached its productivity frontier.

As a theme for strategic communications, it has lost its ability to persuade.

It is now a losing argument because of ‘message decay’ and monotonous repetition at the extreme end of redundancy. There’s no more juice left to squeeze from the orange. It is also failing to create new power because of a strategic orientation bounded too narrowly, within the wrong economic context. And so as an industry narrative, it has a low probability of delivering influence, sparking original ideas or reshaping an operating environment.

But more than that, the discursive war the pharmaceutical industry has been fighting around “drug pricing” is based on an 'untrue simplification' endemic to an entire body of deeply flawed and illogical economic theory in control of the status quo. Healthcare in the United States is a $4.3 trillion system of markets managed by mental fantasy: the idea that any one piece can be isolated from its context and measured with precision.

“The method of freezing the frame, and including in it only measurable moves, works well enough in the analysis of individual markets in isolation, but it breaks down when applied to a whole economy,” explains Robert Skideslky, a British economic historian in What’s Wrong With Economics?: A Primer for the Perplexed, his critique of mainstream economic theories. Skidelsky takes aim at the way that economics is taught and practiced, particularly models which are “beautiful to behold but of little practical relevance.” Economists, he says, “are forced by the requirements of their own reasoning to squeeze their explanations of human behavior into absurdly narrow channels.”

It’s almost as if economic theory assumes away reality.

Economists almost never start with the facts; there are too many. Their general approach is to represent individual choices as parallel straight lines….to ‘make the crooked timber of humanity straight’….by expanding the zone of exclusion in order to make the subject matter of the enquiry “work” within the requirements of the model. So the thing being studied is forced to fit the math, the analytical model serving as a starting point that leads to an unrealistic destination: that an 'optimum equilibrium' is out there waiting to be discovered and proven.

Look no further for evidence of this methodological persistence than The Right Price: A Value-Based Prescription for Drug Costs , by a team from the Evaluation of Value and Risk in Health (CEVR) at the Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies at Tufts Medical Center.

"The pricing of medicines is one of the hardest problems in public policy, brimming with clinical and economic complexity. This remarkable book written by the world's leading group on drug pricing explains the key issues clearly, and without compromise. If you read only one book on how to price medicines smartly, this should be the one," writes Amitabh Chandra, Harvard Kennedy School of Government and Harvard Business School, in his review.

If your jumping-off point is illogical, and then you proceed logically, you're still going to get an illogical conclusion.

Discovering the “economic truth” of a market entails converting an open system into a closed one, and then making recommendations born from that false sense of separation, the “division of labor” as path to productivity, introduced by Adam Smith in the first sentence of An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations in 1776. As a frame for novel strategic thinking, mathematical gymnastics around a single market is not only intellectually fraught, it’s root cause of the nearly 50-year “crisis” in the American Way of healthcare.

The implications of this psychic disintegration are profound. The Western urge to break things apart to study (and sell) them has, to quote the Talking Heads, stopped making sense. Outcomes happen at a system level: never just one thing, but many things simultaneously and interactively. It’s the and that matters.

Healthcare is a ‘nested market’ — its main feature is the density of structural linkages and interactions that cut across domains (Nora Bateson calls this “transcontextual”). By not understanding how to create with complexity, we are missing the moment to develop policy for market integration, to cohere the ‘commercial determinants of health’ on shared marketspace. The next cycle of innovation in the business of healthcare is not about “price” of a piece, but ‘the production of health’ and ‘continuous health engagement’ as new economic objectives.

It’s time to sweep the old concepts out of the saddle.

Healthcare in the United States has become ‘uneconomic’ in the sense that the benefits it is providing are less than the costs it is imposing. In terms of ROI, the negative EBITDA from a $4.3 trillion investment in American healthcare reveals a market + government system that has been badly mismanaged for decades. Writes Sandro Galea in a JAMA Health Forum piece this week (Principles to Guide the US Toward Better Health for All):

“The US spent more than $4 trillion on health care in 2020, or almost 20% of the gross domestic product. This amount is expected to increase by more than 5% annually over the coming decade, reaching more than $6 trillion by 2028. The US spends far more than any other high-income country on its health, even as US residents live sicker, shorter lives than their counterparts in many of these countries. In no small part, the gap between national spending and achievement in population health is due to underinvestment in the forces that shape health….

Any approach to move the US beyond its disappointing state of health must also recognize and grapple with the inextricable link between health and the assets that produce it. This challenge means advancing the national conversation substantially toward recognizing that health and health gaps cannot be improved without making structural changes that remedy historical underinvestments.”

That means a brick through the window of convention and cliche.

"Optimization, market discipline, austerity and other harmful dogmas should not be allowed to make a comeback," say Matheus Grasselli, Alan Kirman and William Hynes here in A Systemic Recovery, their editorial published this month in a special issue of the Journal of Risk and Financial Management devoted to learning and applying the lessons of the COVID-19 pandemic. "What is needed is [a whole] new framework" inspired and informed by strategy and innovation at a system level.

“Our economic systems are exacerbating inequality and other social challenges along pre-existing fault lines, creating negative feedback loops back into the economic system, as unequal societies tend to be less dynamic, less stable, and, even serve to make most of their citizens less well off. The marked increase in inequalities has engendered perceptions of a rigged system, which have in some cases helped to fracture societies, undermine democratic processes and institutions, as well as erode post-WWII international institutions and the spirit of multilateralism.

Addressing such issues requires bold policy action based on a realistic theory of how society works and the role of the economy in relation to the other social and physical components of the overall system.”

Economic reality — whatever that is — is too complicated to be directly interrogated; so it must be simplified to the point of caricature. But therein lies the problem with most economic models. They don’t fit the reality of how people, and systems of markets, actually behave.

The era of linear solutioning is over.

As long as you ride the rails of 'expert knowledge' of the past, the more you reward legacy narratives and obsolete operating theories, the further away you become from navigating the transition space to compete in a different context.

Designing New Economic Systems (“Ecosystems”)

Big tech companies have failed to “fix” healthcare, says Oliver Kharraz, cofounder and CEO of Zocdoc, in a perspective published in Fast Company over the weekend, because they have either attempted to change healthcare from the outside in, or they have tried to force their solutions upon the many players and systems within the space. 

“Successfully changing healthcare requires taking all of the component parts that already exist and finding ways to make them work together. Companies that make a lasting mark on healthcare will be unifiers that build the connective tissue necessary to bring together existing participants, technologies, and applications. 

The likes of Google, Apple, and Amazon are not set up to do this type of hard, slow, connective work that requires a deep understanding of the system’s complexities and how to change it for the better. Rather, they are set up to launch new business lines that leverage their core competencies to help grow their market caps. There is no bigger opportunity for them to do that than in healthcare—whether their core competencies are relevant or not—and so try, they must. 

It is not only the large tech players who have failed to deliver impact at scale in healthcare. Newer healthtech entrants—who collectively received more than $40B in venture funding in 2021 alone to fuel their respective efforts to “fix” healthcare—have also struggled to make their mark. And while their approaches are different to the tech giants’, the underlying reason for their lack of traction is the same: they are unwilling to deal with the complexity of the healthcare system on the whole. 

Instead, these newer entrants set out to fix the fragments of a fragmented system: They offer telehealth-only services while the vast majority of healthcare interactions take place in person. They offer cash pay solutions only while the vast majority of healthcare interactions are funded through insurance. They only target the “worried well” population while ignoring the vast majority of patients who have acute problems. They offer ephemeral solutions that were only relevant during the pandemic, a once-in-a-century event. The result is that they fail to address the vast majority of patients’ needs, and so they cannot reach the critical mass needed to scale. “

The complex reality of the current chaos of collapse is that we all are going to have to re-examine some of our dearest shibboleths. The rules governing and constraining mindsets no longer work for multiple shifting paradigms. The unmet need is a new science of synthesis, a new conceptual frame to solve for market fragmentation.

“There is no mystery to what an ‘economy’ is,” writes Michael J. Sandel, the Anne T. and Robert M. Bass Professor of Government Theory at Harvard University Law School, in What Money Can’t Buy: The Moral Limits of Markets. “An economy is just a group of people interacting with one another as they go about their lives. In this account, economics is about not only the production, distribution and consumption of material goods but also about human interactions in general and the principles by which individuals make decisions.”

And there’s no greater principle by which people make decisions than their healthcare.

If we learned anything in 2020, it should be that public health is not separate from economic health. "Healthcare" is the economy, a meta-market around which $142 trillion in global GDP is linked and flows. If you buy into that view, then the new growth engine ‘for an economy’ is health market integration: the intentional design of entirely new industry ecosystems as the basis for strategic competition.

The roadmap starts by “disrupting" the market in economics, decoupling the future from economic methods that stopped delivering practical and predictive value decades ago. Said differently, the market to displace is the one selling faulty economic models, that shift attention from the truth of what is being asserted to the means by which people are persuaded of its truth.

John Maynard Keynes on economics’ ability to replace common sense with quantitative predictions: “It is as though the fall of the apple to the ground depended on the apple’s motives, on whether it is worthwhile falling to the ground, and whether the ground wanted the apple to fall, and on mistaken calculations on the part of the apple as to how far it was from the center of the earth.”

More to the point:

By fighting a discursive war over flawed economic theory, the pharmaceutical industry is defending the wrong hilltop 🤘

/ jgs

John G. Singer is Executive Director of Blue Spoon Consulting, a global leader in strategy and innovation at a system level. Blue Spoon delivers a Punk Rock ethos of disruption. It was the first to apply systems theory to design a new operating model for pharmaceutical marketing. For new strategic direction, download the Blue Spoon Consulting executive briefing note, "Positioning Drug Market Strategy to Create 'System Value', available on our website.

Disclaimer: Blue Spoon Consulting does not have a financial relationship with any company or individual mentioned in this post.

Fresh Paint #11 Epic as a 'Control Point' in Healthcare; Scene at HLTH; General Catalyst is Killing Monovation; Decoupling from China

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Fresh Paint #11 Epic as a 'Control Point' in Healthcare; Scene at HLTH; General Catalyst is Killing Monovation; Decoupling from China

A collection of commentary, insight and perspective published in November.

Fresh Paint is the Blue Spoon Consulting blog devoted to breaking the relentless momentum of the status quo. The era of linear solutioning is over. Any leader who thinks their business (or government) is going to be successful with the Standard Model of thought and inaction is unlikely to last long.

Outcomes happen at a system level. The locus for a modern strategy should be the same.

‘Strategies for Displacement’

Is Epic’s dominance good for healthcare?

The question is the headline to an article last week by Giles Bruce for Becker’s Healthcare; they asked a handful of hospital CIOs how they feel about Epic as a 'control point' in a $4 trillion market. Epic is the biggest name in health IT and, by all accounts, only getting bigger.

The EHR vendor controls nearly a third of the U.S. hospital market share and continues to add large health systems to its portfolio. But is the Verona, Wis.-based company's reign a positive or negative for healthcare? Becker's asked hospital and health system CIOs how they feel about Epic's command of the business.

Keith Perry, senior vice president and CIO of Roanoke, Va.-based Carilion Clinic:

"Anytime you have limited competition around a product or service, you’re going to see the potential for higher costs associated with it," he said. "In general, competition helps to keep prices in check. Given the limited competition in the EHR space, I think you’re going to see continuing upward movement in cost structures for acquiring and maintaining EHR technology."

Healthcare is one of the largest, most lucrative and hellishly complex businesses in the United States. Many with deep pockets and expert knowledge have attempted to "fix" it; none have been successful. Part of the reason why is the gap in developing new leadership and management skills in designing 'strategies for displacement' -- intentionally creating or degrading power and control.

Writing in Forbes recently, Katie Jennings captures the nut of the problem:

"Hospital executives are often more committed to Epic than most Americans are to their marriages. Epic’s average customer has been using its software for ten years, and Faulkner claims the company has never lost an in-patient hospital client. Partly that’s because it’s so hard to leave."

Epic writes the code to sustain its own flywheel.

Source: Forbes


Scene at HLTH

Seen/Scene @ HLTH’s #HLTH2022: fan·ta·sy /ˈfan(t)əsē/ noun -- the faculty or activity of imagining things, especially things that are impossible or improbable. "the notion of an Amazon-like consumer experience as the reference model for digital health is fantasy”


General Catalyst is Killing Monovation

"Ecosystems" aren't 'out there' already so much as they are intentionally designed with system vision. The process starts by killing the idea of ‘monovation’ — depending on a single source of innovation — as the jumping-off point for new growth.

This has two implications.

The first is the importance of building collaboration that spans industry environments, engages in the boldest forms of connection making, and unifies multiple stakeholders. The second is the importance of shaping developments proactively with systems theory as a compass. Ecosystems create ‘space for computability’ — this is where the endless ladder of opportunity becomes central to strategic thinking, the place that turns the conversation about technology on its head by viewing technology as a natural system, an extension of biological evolution (for more on this idea, “What Technology Wants” by Kevin Kelly is a good start).

And this is where the big technology and big data players want/need to go for growth and market innovation, to move up the value chain and increase their relevance to clients (look no further than “Indian Big Tech’s affair with consulting: Will TCS, Wipro and the likes strike gold this time?” published last week in the Economic Times).

The first stage of an ecosystem-centered market strategy is "ecosystem genesis” — Here is where the basic architecture of a new economic system is worked out. Novel linkages between keystone components are made. The goal is to establish the basic capabilities to create new value. And as an investment thesis, General Catalyst understands this process better than most.

To wit:

"General Catalyst, a San Francisco-based venture capital firm, announced Tuesday it’s partnering with 10 health systems to create a digital health ecosystem.

General Catalyst will serve as a “think tank” to these 15 organizations and give them access to companies within its expansive digital health portfolio. Once each organization works directly with General Catalyst, the 15 systems will create an ecosystem and learn from each other, said UHS CEO Marc Miller."

Like Miller, Dr. David Lubarsky, CEO of UC Davis Health, said he was impressed by Taneja’s vision on health assurance and creating an integrated ecosystem. 

“We believe they have the right philosophy as a partner,” Lubarsky said. “We already use several of their applications. There is probably some information where we can collaborate and co-develop future applications, so they serve not only the basic needs of an organization but an organization as complex as ours.” 

The goal from General Catalyst’s perspective is to bring disruption to those health systems, Taneja said in a previous interview. He said that health systems must disrupt their own business model and work together to achieve the goals of health assurance, which include improving preventative care, reducing costs and boosting access.

General Catalyst closed a $670 million fund focused on health assurance in August.

More simply:

If the objective is disruption, the system comes first.


Strategic Adjustment for China Decoupling

The strategic adjustment Western pharmaceutical companies will need to make is in their understanding of China as a place to invest for growth.

"Companies that have put too many eggs in the China basket will be forced into a painful and costly reorientation," writes Diana Choyleva, chief economist at Enodo Economics. "If they have too much manufacturing in China, they will need to reallocate; if they are too dependent on the Chinese consumer, they’ll need to brace for very slow growth for the foreseeable future.

People talk about “reading the tea leaves” on China, but the results of the 20th party congress in Beijing this month were clear to anyone: Xi Jinping made a clean sweep, putting his men in the top party positions. He now has a clear field to pursue his preferred policies, and those policies are unlikely to be investor-friendly. Markets have taken the outcome of the Congress badly. Investors must now reposition for a China where Xi Jinping’s credo reigns supreme. They must also brace for the expected backlash from the US, in the form of more sanctions and increased scrutiny of supply chains and investment ties that were once encouraged, a mere decade ago.

What lies ahead is nothing short of a fundamental rewiring of how the world works."

Indeed.

Source: Financial Times


Market Innovation via Market Integration

The great "unbundling" in this image is part of The Problem.

Fragmentation in healthcare is getting worse, not better. It's a jungle in fast-forward motion, a tornado of technical potential and possibility with low barriers to entry, a 'thousand points of light' chasing revenue from a $4 trillion health economy in which every ICD-10 code is marketspace.

The scarcity in healthcare (+ life sciences) is not in the supply of solutions, but in their aggregation. In a world of ever-increasing abundance and hyper-commoditization, it is novel combinations that matter most.

To that end, the best way to spark new growth and market innovation is through market integration: combine pieces and parts such that you have a system advantage, a storyline of value told through outcomes, not technical inputs.

Because despite all the 'expert knowledge' and new drugs and technologies currently available, diabetes is still expected to increase by 54 percent by 2030; annual deaths attributed to diabetes will climb by 38 percent; and total annual medical and societal costs related to diabetes will increase 53 percent to more than $622 billion.

When it comes to "fixing" healthcare with creative leadership, start with 'market interoperability' first, and data interoperability second.

Source: CBI Insights

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Blue Spoon Consulting is a global leader in strategy and innovation at a system level. We deliver a Punk Rock ethos of disruption 🤘

“Graffiti is one of the few tools you have if you have almost nothing. And even if you don’t come up with a picture to cure world poverty, you can make someone smile while they’re having a piss” — Bansky, Banging Your Head Against a Brick Wall


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Fresh Paint #10 You Can't Unf**k a Strategic Mess; Liz Truss and Lessons for Executive Leadership; Cognitive Overload; Math Isn't Strategy

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Fresh Paint #10 You Can't Unf**k a Strategic Mess; Liz Truss and Lessons for Executive Leadership; Cognitive Overload; Math Isn't Strategy

A collection of commentary, insight and perspective published in October. Fresh Paint is the Blue Spoon Consulting blog devoted to novel strategic thinking. Any leader who thinks their business (or government) is going to be successful with the Standard Model is unlikely to last long.

Poor strategy is expensive; no strategy is lethal.

You Can’t Unf**k A Strategic Mess

Amanda Pritchard has told local NHS leaders the financial situation facing the health service is a ‘f**king nightmare’, but that it was being tackled at a national level and should not prevent them from improving performance. Included in that is a new proposed quality metric: Elderly people who call for help after a fall at home will no longer be left waiting for hours in agony on the floor.

I guess it helps to have low expectations.

You can't unf**k a strategic mess; you can't "fix" it either. At least not with the Standard Model of thought that only sustains the same action-reaction cycle. Competing through complexity takes a different cognitive pattern, a new mindset for leaders and competency for managers not found on the curriculum of most b-schools and executive education programs.

We're in the era of the long slide.

And unless we seriously question the 'expert knowledge' guiding the linear solutioning and strategies sold with passion and purpose through the PowerPoints, we're all f**ked.

‘The money is a f**king nightmare’, says NHS England chief executive


Avoiding a Crisis of Crushing Stupidity

The "spectacular disaster" of Liz Truss becomes not just a humiliation for Britain, but another general lesson in strategic collapse. Writes Tom McTague in The Atlantic:

"Truss’s plan turned out to be like one of those booby traps in an Indiana Jones movie, triggering the collapse of a roof covered in deadly spikes. Whichever way she now turns, she seems destined to be impaled on a spike of her own creation. Having given up on much of her plan for growth, she has removed the very point of Liz Truss. But Liz Truss remaining prime minister means that the markets are likely to continue their squeeze. She has nowhere to go but political death.It would be hard to design a more catastrophic act of political self-immolation."

Poor strategy is expensive; no strategy is lethal.

Note to aspiring business and government leaders and managers worldwide, when it comes to avoiding a "crisis of crushing stupidity" and preserving your professional fate, start with common sense.

The Liz Truss Travesty Becomes Britain’s Humiliation

Source: The Atlantic


Cognitive Overload

“Disease Awareness" campaigns are another category of waste in health care. They sit at the extreme end of redundancy and monotonous repetition, powerless to punch through because they are being shaped and sold around an obsolete theory of communications and persuasion.

In 'Stop Raising Awareness Already,' Ann Searight Christiano, who holds the Frank Karel Chair in Public Interest Communications at the University of Florida, writes on the need for a different model to positioning public health communications.

"For those working on a cause they care about, the first instinct is often to make sure that as many people as possible are aware of the problem. When we care about an issue or a cause, it’s natural to want others to care as much as we do. Because, we reason, surely if people knew that you’re more likely to die in an accident if you don’t wear a seat belt, they’d wear their seat belt. And if people only knew that using condoms is critical to preventing the spread of disease, then they would use one every time.

That instinct is described by communication theory as the Information Deficit Model. The term was introduced in the 1980s to describe a widely held belief about science communication -- that much of the public’s skepticism about science and new technology was rooted, quite simply, in a lack of knowledge. And that if the public only knew more, they would be more likely to embrace scientific information."

The allure of the linear solution is hard to resist.

Most of us have first-hand experience with the administrative complexity, inefficient workflows, obsolete care standards and ample fraud as root cause for around $1 trillion in waste floating throughout the healthcare economy.

Perhaps it's also time to see another dimension:

Healthcare has normalized cliche. Not just cliches of the pen, but cliches of the mind. It's time for a new cognitive pattern.

Dis­ease aware­ness daze: Do pa­tients and peo­ple tune out health con­di­tion months and re­lat­ed mar­ket­ing?

Source: Endpoints News


Math Isn't Strategy

The backstory of every big consulting project starts not with a common sense answer, but with selling the need to study the study:

"Councilwoman Sandy Nurse, who heads the council's sanitation committee, questioned the need for a new study by McKinsey & Company when the city has examined container bins for decades.

“There was a body of work done… [with] a lot of these ideas that is sitting there, and could easily be looked at again,” Nurse said. “Hiring McKinsey seems a little unnecessary at best. The city should be developing this kind of expertise in-house, at city agencies.”

Indeed, government should develop skills for leadership and innovation, but that would mean all those freshly-minted MBAs would have nothing to analyze.

Math isn't strategy.

Disruption starts with imagination and a novel vision, not "data analytics, supply chain analysis, and cost model development"

NYC orders $4 million McKinsey study on whether trash piles would be better inside containers

Source: The Gothamist

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Blue Spoon Consulting is a global leader in strategy and innovation at a system level. We deliver a Punk Rock ethos of disruption 🤘

“Graffiti is one of the few tools you have if you have almost nothing. And even if you don’t come up with a picture to cure world poverty you can make someone smile while they’re having a piss”Bansky, Banging Your Head Against a Brick Wall

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Solving for System Error

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Solving for System Error

We have effectively killed off the independent sphere.

In the lingo of modern strategy, the faster industry and government can start seeing and thinking and creating in biological terms, the better the strategic fit our seeing and thinking and creating become to how the world really works.

In the end bio-logic wins strategic competitions.

In the infinite loop of integration of the made and the born, it comes down to working with a new industrial ecology: whoever is better aggregating interactions and conditions, of understanding and managing emergence and natural flux, is better positioned to sustain continuous advantage over a rival. If we learned anything from "How Covid Crashed The System" (borrowing from the title of David B. Nash, MD, MBA's new book), it should be this: healthcare is the economy, a meta-market around which the entire $100 trillion global economy is linked and flows and depends.

Public health is not separate from economic health.

Labor is not separate from management. Technology is not separate from people. Patient is not separate from family. Healthcare professional is not separate from healthcare consumer. Industry is not separate from government. Man is not separate from nature, the disruptive common sense Yvon Chouinard, founder of Patagonia, used when he transferred ownership of his company to Earth, the "only shareholder" that matters, rather than go public.

There is no “out there” that separates the observer from the observed.

“What’s changed is the world around us is now within us,” Robert Cardillo, director of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, told a Senate Intelligence Committee during a hearing on a new context for military strategy in 2018. “What we used to hold exclusively — because we had capabilities that others didn’t — is now more shared.”

The problem space has changed.

Solving for System Error

Change comes in three wavelengths, says Kevin Kelly, a co-founder of Wired Magazine: There are changes to the game, changes in the rules of the game, and changes in how the rules are changed.

And so what's emerging as the building blocks for strategic success today is a management team who can see, understand and rapidly adapt to what can fairly be described as a total change in context in the landscape for business.

It's legacy thinking -- not technology -- that's maybe the biggest barrier to navigating the transition space to a new era. Leadership teams become kinetically-trapped in outmoded structures, orientations, incentives and schools of thought, doomed to be, always, in defense of whatever business model allowed them to be successful in the first place. Most "digital transformations" reinforce the obsolete.

A flywheel business is one that intentionally manages itself as a 'self-generating market' -- there's no better example than Amazon. Lucas Shaw captures the insight in his lates piece in Bloomberg (Amazon Is the Least Understood Company in Hollywood):

"Amazon has taken a different approach to entertainment than every other major company in Hollywood. It doesn’t fund TV shows to make money from them, at least not on a standalone basis. It uses entertainment to lure you into its ecosystem and market other products….

….Amazon and Apple approach entertainment as aggregators. Their original programming is just one part of a much larger package you are buying from them. This has been key to Apple’s success. Customers who sign up for its bundle of six services (gaming, TV, music, cloud, news and fitness) are far less likely to cancel than people who pay for a service on its own."

It’s about designing ‘stickiness’ and continuous customer engagement, creating new things to send down the slide faster than they can become commoditized. It’s about intentionally making other markets and industries a feature of your ecosystem (“featurizing”).

Which underscores the new rules for creating and competing at a system level:

  • “Value” is a flow, not an end state

  • Superwinners think in terms of ‘progressive integration’ of markets’

  • Make other industries a feature of your economic system

  • ‘First party data’ (information a company collects directly from its customers and owns) is a source of innovative power

Market integration (aggregation) has fundamentally changed the plane of competition, belives Ben Thompson from Stratechery : “no longer do distributors compete based upon exclusive supplier relationships, with consumers/users an afterthought. Instead, suppliers can be commoditized leaving consumers/users as a first order priority. By extension, this means that the most important factor determining success is the user experience: the best distributors/aggregators/market-makers win by providing the best experience, which earns them the most consumers/users, which attracts the most suppliers, which enhances the user experience in a virtuous cycle.”

Healthcare is an N-Sided Market

The “market access” problem to solve is market interoperability. Medication adherence technology is a $4B market; patient engagement technology is a $40B market; technology services is a $1.2 trillion market; pharmaceuticals is a $400B market (in the United States); "digital health" technology is a $536B market; medical devices are a $140B market....

...all having data showcasing the functional benefits of their individual pieces.

Execution is shaped by a linear set of assumptions and decisions, all bounded in a narrow operational construct: my market. Everything thinks in isolation. And so the ‘enterprise-wide’ technology roadmap generally excludes a crucial interaction with other enterprises acting as a single organism (“concurrent enterprising”). Which is the essence of ecosystem-centered market strategy.

If the goal is competing with a better outcomes story, then the shift in market vision is from downward pricing pressure on product, to upward pricing possibility for system.

Cohesion happens by sliding markets together in new ways, combining pieces and parts into new systems of health engagement, and then servicing the system to improve its performance over time. The system becomes the value framework. (See "Putting More Value Into Biopharmaceutical Value Assessments" published in Health Affairs last week.) In other words, the value framework becomes the roadmap for market integration.

This is a unique form of “market access innovation” — It yields a step change in the kind and degree of value offered that creates space to sustain a system advantage. Collaboration is elemental to strategic success.

Across domains, where things fall apart is in buying obsolete economic methods and operational concepts -- "efficiency", "margin", "value", "price" -- as the business rules engine governing how and why decisions are made.

A modern strategy works with different economic logic.

It's time for 'the market' and 'the government' to reframe with a new taxonomy and start creating collectively, as one unit, with a new orientation to invention. Until we break the Standard Model of thought and inaction, the structural stalemate, spotty efficacy, horrible experience, and bad EBITDA from a $4 trillion investment will sit at the center of perpetual dysfunction. More to the point, the 'production of health' is the real internal dynamic....the invisible mind behind the invisible hand....that sparks the flywheel to start new economic systems.

Which is how Amazon thinks.

🤘

/ jgs

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Solving for 'Colossal Global Dysfunction'

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Solving for 'Colossal Global Dysfunction'

Woodstock '99 was supposed to celebrate the 30th anniversary of "peace, love and happiness." Instead, the Rome, New York music festival earned the infamous distinction of "the day the Nineties died," the end of riding a magical wave which we didn't think would break.

While much of the chaos at Woodstock came before his appearance, Kid Rock planted the seeds of aggression during his early-afternoon set on the third day.

From Rolling Stone’s retrospective:

Sandwiched between slots by the Tragically Hip and Wycleaf Jean, Kid Rock took to the stage and, according to the San Francisco Examiner, "demanded that the kids pelt the stage with plastic water bottles," perhaps making a statement about vendors' price-gouging for water.

Woodstock '99 ultimately devolved fully into Lord of the Flies.

"Bonfires broke out throughout the crowd. Vehicles were flipped and set ablaze. Vendor booths and merch tents were destroyed and used as fuel. Eventually, the New York State Troopers were able to diffuse the riots, but Griffiss Air Force Base still ended up looking like a bomb hit it."

--------

The 77th United Nations General Assembly opened yesterday, with Secretary-General Antonio Guterres describing in his keynote remarks a world that has become "gridlocked in colossal global dysfunction."

"Our world is in peril and paralyzed. Geopolitical divides are undermining the work of the security council, undermining international law, undermining trust and people's faith in democratic institutions, undermining all forms of international cooperation.

We cannot go on like this."

Welcome to the new world disorder. Nearly everyone is trying to figure out how to deal with a new operating environment whose main features are complexity, interactivity, and high-velocity evolution. 

In the spirt of breaking out the mind rubble, Blue Spoon Consulting is making available a set of Executive Briefing Notes that use general systems theory to position novel strategic thinking, enable market innovation and spark the design of new economic systems (#ecosystems).

Download here, no registration required.

Because unfortunately Secretary General Guterres, we absolutely can go on like this. The gravitational pull of low-orbit thinking is a powerful thing 🤘

/ jgs

John G. Singer is Executive Director of Blue Spoon Consulting, a global leader in strategy and innovation at a system level. Blue Spoon was the first to apply systems theory to solve complex market access and integration challenges in the pharmaceutical industry.

P.S. Both HBO (Woodstock '99: Peace, Love, and Rage) and Netflix (Trainwreck: Woodstock '99) have recently-released documentaries revisiting "one of the most calamitous festivals of all time."

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Re: 'Market Access' Innovation in the Pharmaceutical Industry

Re: 'Market Access' Innovation in the Pharmaceutical Industry

If you want to understand the structural stalemate in healthcare, look no further than this "framework" on market access for gene therapies, developed by a working group convened by Blue Cross Blue Shield Association and the Aspen Institute (Increasing Access to Affordable, Life-Saving Medicines: Framework Released by Working Group Headed by Former FDA Commissioners).

Cracking the nut of The Problem wasn't even considered as a "future direction":

"[We] did not contemplate a large-scale overhaul of the current reimbursement system for the great majority of approved therapeutics. Indeed, care needs to be taken not to disrupt parts of the market that already maintain a reasonable balance between providing incentives that promote bold investments and preserving access to the results."

So much for strategy to "fix" things.

The American Way of healthcare is protected by many weapons of mass entrenchment; and it is controlled by information asymmetries that sustain the businesses ('control points') invested in the current system; the calcification runs thick, and solutions born with yesterday's economic thinking will always win the war for budget. 

This is one reason why, after nearly 20 years, the 'value-based payment' movement is still mostly a tweak of the edges. Write Kip Sullivan, Ana Malinow and Kay Tillow in a recent piece in STAT (Value-based payment has produced little value. It needs a time-out):

"The value-based payment crusade is now two decades old. But despite the tens of billions of dollars — perhaps hundreds of billions — spent on these programs, they have done little to improve Americans’ health or lower health care costs. It is time for proponents of value-based care to call a halt to these programs until they have an answer to this question: “Why have the vast majority of value-based payment experiments failed to improve value?”

Gene therapy is one of the most compelling concepts in modern medicine -- the ability to provide someone with a single treatment that will alleviate a terrible condition for a decade or more, perhaps even for life.

These are interventions without parallel.

Part of the scale problem is trying to make these innovations work within the context of a $4 trillion economic system organized to serve the underbelly of the actuarial tables, managed to reward the short-term, and fractured into fragments of value and market segments, the 'division of labor' that Adam Smith introduced to the world nearly 250 years ago.

It is hard to avoid the impression that, in confronting the need for "disruption" by the system as a whole, we are enacting a historical pantomime in which, rather than aiming for big ideas and new storylines, the actors perform similar roles with exaggerated gestures and the audience knows ahead of time at which points to boo and when to cheer.

And so we stay kinetically-trapped in a massive feedback loop, trying to fit the future onto the past, conceptually bounded by the Standard Model of thought and inaction.

We have become comfortable with the “organized irresponsibility” of a massive flywheel, one that’s powered by legacy concepts, technical debt and narrative framings, and it incessantly spins around itself as an infinitely recursive problem, the writing being overwritten by the same arrangement of pieces. Healthcare has been stuck for decades in stasis, governed by the veto power of legacy knowledge and culture, moving only in cautious increments. 

The next cycle of evolution in the business and economics of ‘producing health’ flows from a different equation altogether, a view of market innovation through market integration: life sciences + healthcare + government = new industry ecosystems as the locus for competition.

 At stake is a new category of growth and creative leadership from ‘system entrepreneurship’ — the capability to define and align “value” around shared marketspace, to cast outcomes as a narrative frame ahead of inputs, to begin with a market-based view as the voltage for powerful amplification and induction effects to create new economic systems.

What no longer works in healthcare is "monovation" -- depending on a single source of innovation. When it comes to realizing the technical potential of new technology, 'the system' always comes first, not the technical input. 

‘Market access innovation’ is about value that's created above and beyond any one piece in isolation from its environment, or any one market working independently of another, or “the market” viewed separately from “the government.”

Until then, it's the sound of one hand clapping.

🤘

  / jgs

John G. Singer is Executive Director of Blue Spoon Consulting, a global leader in Strategy and Innovation at a System Level. Blue Spoon was the first to apply systems theory to solve complex market access and integration challenges in the pharmaceutical industry.

The Four Stages of Ecosystem-Centered Market Strategy

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The Four Stages of Ecosystem-Centered Market Strategy

“Ecosystems” are a biological orientation to approach modern market strategy, a way of becoming the ‘invisible mind behind the invisible hand’ to see and spark and sustain entirely new economic systems. It’s a new skill for leadership and management — the goal is to position and then intentionally design a systems of markets to as a single organism, and draw innovative power from their connectivity.

Ecosystem-centered market strategy is characterized by:

  • System Entrepreneurship. Ecosystem-centered strategy is about combining ‘sets of markets’ to build new economic systems. Instead of market fragments acting in isolation from each other, ecosystems enable new possibilities to achieve objectives defined in terms of ‘system value’.

  • A New Paradigm in Persuasion. By moving away from the sterile marketing parlance of brands and branding, industry ecosystems provide new metaphors, orientations, language, and ideas — a whole new taxonomy — to see and solve issues of ‘value alignment’ with the business and technology agendas of customers.

  • A Different Innovation Agenda. Ecosystems enable ‘computational imagination’ in the space between healthcare and the pharmaceutical industry. By connecting market fragments in new combinations, complex problems beyond the abilities of individual markets are solvable, and new capabilities are acquired.

  • High Leverage. Ecosystems are high-leverage. Rather than trying to squeeze more life out of worn-out paradigms, ecosystems transcend the “control points” and feedback loops keeping incumbents in power and the status quo alive, creating the conditions to enable market innovation, strategic transformation and new storylines of value.

There are four stages to ecosystem strategy:

Stage One: “Genesis” — Here is where the basic architecture of a new economic system is worked out. Novel linkages between keystone components are made. Goal is to establish the basic capabilities to create new value.

Stage Two: “Expansion” — Proof-of-concept is established. An ecosystem has taken root, and the keystone partners who established it broaden the scope, reach and offers within the new system.

Stage Three: “Authority” — The system becomes established as a reference point. A new economy organizes its work around this reference point, and the system attracts new components that can access new customers and create new markets.

Stage Four: “Renewal” — Systems are “ideal seeking” – this is why they can never be optimized. The only stable system in life is at death. Continuing innovation to improve system performance must take place for the ecosystem to thrive.

For a more context on how to close the implementation gap between technology innovation and ecosystem-centered market strategies, check out our paper ‘Ecosystem-Centered Business Strategy’ published by IEEE, is the world’s largest technical professional organization dedicated to advancing technology for the benefit of humanity.

/ jgs

John G. Singer is Executive Director of Blue Spoon Consulting, a global leader in strategy and innovation at a system level. Blue Spoon was the first to apply systems theory to solve complex market access and integration challenges in the pharmaceutical industry.

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Amazon, Apple and the New Health Infrastructures

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Amazon, Apple and the New Health Infrastructures

Originally published October 2017; updated to integrate Amazon’s acquisition of One Medical

Anyone surprised that Amazon is buying a network of primary care clinics is misreading the $20 trillion shift happening in healthcare worldwide. All the money is moving to a new form of competition based on outcomes delivered through a consumer-grade experience.

The industry re-organization is happening in different ways and at different rates in different markets. But it has progressed to the point where the global trend is clear and rapidly accelerating: the center-of-gravity for health system strategy is on entirely new value propositions and enabling (if not guaranteeing) better outcomes. 

Winners will be those who can navigate this transition space with leadership and a superior understanding of ecosystem-centered market strategies, at scale.

In 2017, Apple considered the same sort of move. In breaking the news about Apple, CNBC said the discussions about expanding into primary care had been happening inside Apple's health team for more than a year (here's the link: Apple explored buying a medical-clinic start-up as part of a bigger push into health care). CEO Tim Cook had previously said health is a major business opportunity for Apple, although "most analysts believed he was talking about how the iPhone and Apple Watch might monitor people's health," according to BusinessInsider.

The allure of the gadgets is hard to resist.

The analysts are working with an under-conceptualized view of the flux, and perpetual remixing, shaping new industry models. The focus tends to be almost excessively on the functional attributes of the technology.

Missing from the conventional perspective is understanding that pieces matter less than the whole, "things" are secondary to experiences. The new business value to extract from healthcare is not from the discrete use of iPhone applications or the Apple Watch, but the way these components can meld together to interact and form a broader architecture for managing information.

A Dominant Design for Healthcare Delivery

Amazon (and Apple) is an infrastructural technology. It looks set to become the dominant design for healthcare delivery in the United States, the backbone to match clinical outcomes with business and administrative processes.

To put it another way, Amazon has solved for ‘market interoperability’ at a national level. It is one or two acquisitions away from becoming its own health system.

Its deal with health insurer Aetna to bring the Apple Watch to Aetna’s 23 million members as a free perk is one example of how it's strengthening its position, embedding iOS deeper within the bedrock and locking-in a kinetic advantage. In so doing, it has elevated the concept of a 'consumer-grade experience' as a standard, one on par with keeping HbA1c levels below 7 for someone with diabetes.

The price of admission to play in the next healthcare will be connecting to this new standard. In other words, the magic leap to new value will be according to the rules of Apple.

Our brains, the neural engines of the mind, will have to work with a new frame around the new world we're encountering. The ecology of mentally processing a complicated zoo of interaction requires a different lens:

  • Seeing technology as a form of biology. "We are morphing so fast that our ability to invent new things outpaces the rate we can civilize them," says Kevin Kelly, the visionary thinker and founder of Wired who foresaw the scope of the internet revolution. We're less multichannel than infinite channel. All things being equal, the physics that govern the dynamics of technology creation outweigh the specific features of a piece of technology, or the particular instances in which it gets used.

  • Making agility a strategic imperative. Adapting to the disruptions of modernity rides on an operating model that is agile, one that is capable of managing a circular expansion of both problems and solutions as a living, breathing thing. Patience is needed to reward and nurture a steady accumulation of small net benefits over time.

  • Positioning 'human-centered design' as the interface to engage with people formerly known as target audiences.

IDEO describes human-centered design as a creative approach to problem solving that starts with the people you're designing for, and ends with new solutions that are tailor-made to suit their needs.

This is a space with new anchors of meaning: patients as doctors, doctors as consumers, customers as competitors, and competitors as collaborators. We've spent billions to fix our medical records, and they're still a mess. The reason why is because Epic and Cerner did not know or understand the importance of 'human-centered' as fundamental point (for more context, see here: AMA demands EHR overhaul, calls them 'poorly designed and implemented').

  • Looking beyond the clinical setting to improve outcomes. More than 2 billion people worldwide are overweight or obese (reference here); more than 400 million people worldwide have diabetes. The next design frontier is less connected health, more distributed health. It's about dissolving boundaries between pieces -- market, industry, technology -- to continuously deliver against a unique patient-to-consumer-to-patient-to-consumer loop. Says Chris Lawer, Founder and CEO at Umio:

"Value is increasingly sourced in adjacent-to-clinical "social" ecosystems. Most health tech companies are searching in the wrong forest for growth opportunities."

  • Becoming the authoritative source of a particular kind of information. As more and more data (and data providers) flood the market, a competitive position based solely on data becomes impossible to defend. Specialized cognition, superior insight into how to manage unique sub-populations (say the 'diabetic asthmatic'), or inventing entirely new standards of care (see here for Shire in hemophilia), is a leverageable and sustainable advantage.

Power flows from discovery, not distribution.

There are multiple billion-dollar business models and markets to develop based on improving outcomes and squeezing inefficiency from healthcare. The path to get there is to make technology so immersive that it disappears into the experience. Competition is about creating and managing new systems of engagement.

The 'Amazon Way of Strategy'

Amazon is not an e-commerce company.

It's now a foregone conclusion that Amazon is entering the healthcare sector. Every other day there is another article (including this one) on how they're planning to dominate some new corner of the American economy. 

Amazon has said it is preparing to make two very big decisions public. The first is whether or not it will get into healthcare, to be announced, supposedly, sometime around Thanksgiving. (The second is where it will locate its second world headquarters.) 

While the investment bankers at Leerink predict the "disruptive potential posed by Amazon will be across the multi-billion dollar pharmacy benefits arena," what if Amazon really wanted to go all in? What might that look like?

Could Amazon become a payer, dis-intermediating the likes of Cigna and Anthem with its health infrastructure? Could it become a provider, like Apple considered? It's not beyond the realm.

The health plan industry's worst nightmare is employers realizing they are actually the insurance company. Dave Chase argues that any company over 100 employees or so is an insurance company in all but name, and asks "what do health plans do that couldn't be done better by an algorithm?"

DJ Wilson, President and CEO of State of Reform, a stakeholder-driven initiative that tries to bridge the gap between the worlds of health care and policy, explored the concept of Amazon-as-health-insurance-company last month in a provocative blog. In The 8 steps to Amazon entering the health market, he writes:

"Amazon looks for industries that are not sensitive to the customer, that have profits or premium pricing based on barriers to entry (often capital related), and looks to exploit those opportunities. It’s pretty straight forward. And, whether that industry is cloud storage space or groceries or “last mile” distribution networks, Amazon is thinking about it."

He goes further, suggesting that Amazon already provides health insurance benefits to almost 500,000 employees: 390,000 or so at Amazon, and 90,000 or so at Whole Foods. They also cover some number of employee dependents. If you count that total number of lives, they immediately become one of the largest health plans on the west coast. 

An "Amazon Strategy" is very simple: it's about finding and reducing friction in a system.

Like Apple, it means organizing technology delivery around people, not people around technology. Add-in unique capabilities in delivering quality, cost transparency, customer reviews, hyper-personalization, and lowering costs, and it's easy to see the roadmap.

And if Amazon can buy Whole Foods, it can buy a network of urgent care centers, or primary care providers. There are a number of them out there that would jump at that chance.

The New Standard: A ‘Consumer-Grade Experience’

Apple and Amazon have taken two paths to the same conclusion: as health care costs rise, and as consumers are forced to shoulder more of the burden for their care, convenience, transparency and a personalized experience are new forces emerging from the environment that are driving health system transformation.

Consumers' mounting cost burden affects both employers and employees, as a growing portion of each company’s bottom line and employee income goes to health care.

Eight years into healthcare reform, high-deductible health plans have become the norm. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, 51 percent of employee-sponsored health plans have annual deductibles of $1,000 or more. Two-thirds of plans on health exchanges have deductibles that exceed $3,500 for individuals and $7,400 for families.

That dramatic shift in cost, from payers to consumers, is shifting patient behavior — and not always for the better, says Harvard economist David Cutler, senior healthcare advisor to the 2008 Obama presidential campaign and a member of the Massachusetts Health Policy Commission.

“People absolutely respond to the incentives in a high-deductible policy," Cutler says — but as they try to limit out-of-pocket costs, they often skimp on needed care. In turn, many health systems have had to change their own procedures and stare down the risk of bad debt.

It's a worldwide trend.

This relationship between income and reliance on out-of-pocket health expenditures is shown in the chart below. Here, we see the share of out-of-pocket expenditure as a percentage of total healthcare expenditure (on the y-axis) versus gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (which has been PPP-adjusted) on the x-axis.

It's not clear whether Apple would build out its own network of primary care clinics, in a similar manner to its highly successful retail stores, or simply partner with existing players. It's not clear if Amazon will buy or open its own brand of retail health stores. What is clear, though, is that quality and convenience -- a consumer-grade experience -- is shaping the new healthcare infrastructures.

Outcomes Over Inputs

Americans are retiring later, dying sooner and are sicker in-between.

Data released last week suggest Americans’ health is declining and millions of middle-age workers face the prospect of shorter, and less active, retirements than their parents enjoyed. Americans in their late 50s already have more serious health problems than people at the same ages did 10 to 15 years ago, according to the journal Health Affairs.

At the current retirement age of 66, a quarter of Americans age 58 to 60 rated themselves in “poor” or “fair” health. That’s up 2.6 points from the group who could retire with full benefits at 65, the Michigan researchers found.

Cognitive skills have also declined over time. For those with a retirement age of 66, 11 percent already had some kind of dementia or other cognitive decline at age 58 to 60, according to the study. That’s up from 9.5 percent of Americans just a few years older, with a retirement age between 65 and 66.

Read the full story from Bloomberg here.

Finding Strategic Fit

Yet in a style of thinking similar to the one used by analysts who were blindsided by Apple's potential (impending?) move into health delivery, there are many established players, like Walgreen's CEO Stefano Pessina, who believe healthcare is "too complicated for an e-commerce company like Amazon."

It's a serious misreading things.

Disruption is a clash between accelerating curves and our brain's wanting things to be linear. The problem with exponential systems is they catch us by surprise.

"And so institutions are doomed to be, always, in defense of whatever allowed them to be successful in the first place" -- Richard Normann, Reframing Business

In other words, if you don't like change, you're going to like irrelevance even less 🤘

/ jgs

John G. Singer is the Executive Director of Blue Spoon Consulting, a global leader in strategy and innovation at a system level. Blue Spoon was the first to apply system thinking to solve complex market access and integration challenges in the pharmaceutical industry.

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Hope Isn't a Strategy

Hope Isn't a Strategy

Seeing in systems is an unnatural act.

We are essentially linear creatures -- Western society fosters and rewards linear behavior and performance from kindergarten on. Our educational system teaches and grades on it; our market strategies are positioned and executed on it; and it drives policy decisions throughout government, non-government, and business settings.

A linear frame of reference is part of our subconscious bedrock.

But 2021-2022 is demonstrating that we are living through something very unusual -- a historic break, enervation at an epic scale, a stark and sudden shift in our awareness of the rules of real reality.

And it's raising deep and concerning questions about leadership and strategic fit across the span of human endeavor.

What's troubling is that in trying to answer these questions, even at a technical level, the underlying regime of power is thematized, the calcification becoming thicker, the institutionalization of decay and decomposing economic theories stronger.

In a mostly unselfconscious way, the managers of The System articulate their preference for a particular configuration, or non-configuration, of market forces. It's a default conceptual pattern born from generations of experience and education on the division of labor as the path to optimization, of breaking things apart to study and improve.

And so a fragmented past is confirmed as portal to the future.

Legacy narratives have veto power over the new, the same assemblage of words controlling the conversation and the content. This helps explain the methodological persistence keeping us tweaking the edges of obsolete modes of being, and then being surprised when "strategy" fails.

We're confusing power with PowerPoint.

Our fears become images, images become projections, and projections as they expand blur into indistinctiveness and empty discourse, the cliche that swarms at high altitudes, inaction hiding behind a halo of virtue and empathy.

But at some point, we need to get off the comfortable mental furniture keeping the Standard Model alive and start seeing and thinking with a new set of attitudes toward the real reality we all share. A whole new taxonomy is needed, not for its own sake, but to semantically separate conventional approaches from novel ones, and to generate different strategic concepts that have leverage to create new value.

Seeing and thinking in terms of systems is the mother lode to mine for a new imagination, the kind of creative leadership that solves for strategic atrophy. This isn't a moral argument about "doing the right thing,” but an understanding that radical forces are changing not just the rules of the game, but the game itself. 

The skill in short supply is not technical, but visionary, able to articulate and propagate a new direction, and manage the transition to market innovation. Because simply hanging loose at the crap tables and hoping for the best is the low-probability path to strategic (and professional) success 🤘

/ jgs

John G. Singer is Executive Director of Blue Spoon Consulting, a global leader in Strategy and Innovation at a System Level. Blue Spoon was the first to apply systems theory to solve complex market access and integration challenges in the pharmaceutical industry.

On 'Strategic Fit'​ to the New World Disorder

On 'Strategic Fit'​ to the New World Disorder

The most hackneyed word in the lexicon of Western thought needs serious re-evaluation. Across business and government settings in the West, infinite means (technology) are being mistaken for ends, operations are being confused for outcomes, “strategy” is something that is described afterwards, a watery residue of past actions taken in isolation from each other, then packaged and positioned in PowerPoints to sell the idea that this is what we intended all along. 

The Main Drift is painfully apparent:

The West has reached a place where an inversion of the expected order has happened. “An epic global contest between autocracy and liberal values lies ahead,” predicted The Economist, framing the enervation – a strategic atrophy -- in the minds of planners flailing to understand fully what feels like some unnatural East-West interface that is beyond current language to fix:

“The pull China exerts is no longer just a matter of size – although with 18% of world GDP, it has that too. The country is also where firms discover consumer trends and innovations. It is increasingly where commodity prices and the cost of capital are set, and is becoming a source of regulations. Business is betting that, in Hong Kong and the mainland, China’s thuggish government is capable of self-restraint in the commercial sphere, providing contractual certainty, despite the lack of fully independent courts and free speech.”

China understands that a single type of thing, now matter how good it is, cannot make harmony, writes Michael Sandel, Professor of Government at Harvard University, in Encountering China, his examination of Chinese engagement with the West. Bringing together leading experts in Confucian and Daoist thought, Sandel reveals the Eastern operating philosophy a linear-thinking West has trouble seeing and understanding: The highest virtue is harmonious relationship rather than justice. "The goal is to create a social environment where the circumstances of justice are such that justice does not have to be the primary virtue."

It's the common good that matters. 

For China, their "governance model" is a simply a means to an end. Which is consistent with the argument that proportionality in aligning ends with means is the art of strategy and statecraft: the ability to grasp interconnections between pieces and parts, and then shape them into a system advantage.

Competing with a Modern Strategy is a game played at a system level. It’s a completely different orbit for action and imagination. It’s about changing the primary material conditions for creative leadership and content positioned with systems thinking, the same high-leverage mode of thought that China intuitively understands and is using to reorient the world according to their “rules.”

“The new policy toward China is one based largely on competition — economic and diplomatic — but it is also prepared to alternately cooperate or confront Beijing when necessary," writes Lara Jakes from the New York Times in her coverage of the first talks between Chinese and American diplomats in Alaska.

Which is confusing.

Isn’t a “strategy” always about competition? Have we in the West been hanging weird at the crap tables too long, hoping for the best from our technologies while ignoring the long slide of our concepts since the end of the 1950s?

In the view of Kurt Campbell, the White House Asia policy coordinator:

“The Cold War was primarily a military competition.” But “the modern ramparts of competition will be in technology,” he said, such as 5G networks, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, robotics and human sciences. Competing in those areas would require “making progressive, ambitious public investment here in the United States so that we stay on the cutting edge.”

I'm doubtful.

Strategy is Not Technology

In an article for Sloan Management Review (What Strategy is Not) that was subsequently used by the U.S. Army War College to position innovation initiatives and capability development for its Third Offset Strategy, a new doctrine by the Department of Defense to pursue next-generation concepts and leadership education, I argued that no one ever gains advantage from letting technology lead strategic visioning. This is the short road to parity. When the same communication and knowledge acquisition technologies are accessible to everyone, and everyone works with the same set of ideas to deploy technology the same way, there is competitive convergence. 

"The nation’s war colleges received a brutal – if pre-emptive – failing grade from the Joint Chiefs, who declared that Joint Professional Military Education schools are not producing military commanders who can achieve intellectual overmatch against adversaries,” wrote Thomas Barnett, author of the Pentagon’s New Map, and Lea Culver, chief executive officer of Creek Technologies, in a piece for PAXsims, a blog devoted to the use of games and simulation-based learning for policy innovation.

Because China increasingly matches our “mass” and “best technology,” the Joint Chiefs argued that America and the West will prevail in future conflicts primarily by having more capable officers, explain Barnett and Culver. “The Joint Chiefs were very clear: Comprehensively [develop] a ‘talent management system’ that produces officers who can “apply our capabilities better and more creatively” than our peer competitors."

In other words, strategy is a creative act.

If the jumping-off point for new direction in the West is premised on the technical potential of technology, if we buy the sell that “transformation” and “innovation” and “progress” should be framed in technological terms, the odds are that we will stay stuck in the same confused haze that is sustaining perpetual crisis across contexts.

Seeing and thinking in terms of systems is the mother lode to mine for Big Innovation, the kind that solves for strategic atrophy. This isn't a moral argument about "doing the right thing,” but an understanding that radical forces are changing not just the rules of the game, but the game itself. 

The unmet need is a new category of ideas from which to create and compete. 

"From the very beginning, nearly two decades ago, the American military's effort to advise and mentor Iraqi and Afghan forces was treated like a pick-up game -- informal, ad hoc, and absent of strategy," writes Mike Jason in the Atlantic last week in What We Got Wrong in Afghanistan. (He retired in 2019 as a U.S. Army colonel, after 24 years on active duty. He commanded combat units in Germany, Kosovo, Kuwait, Iraq, and Afghanistan.)

"But from my tours in Iraq through my time in Afghanistan, larger systemic problems were never truly addressed. Yet these failings -- egregious as they were -- make it easy to focus on the armed forces as a scapegoat. In fact, the military, our allies, and our Iraqi and Afghan partners were responding to a lack of coherent policy and strategy."

It’s time to recognize, quickly, the foundational fragility of the Western approach to strategic thinking and understand that the weapons of mass entrenchment keeping the obsolete alive are more conceptual than they are technical. Our ideas are running on the watery residue of the past.

We have normalized cliché and inertia, struggling in a vacuum of new words to foresee differently, to create new patterns, a lack of systems thinking that threatens to calcify the decline beyond anything the thin and threadbare language of “technology” can handle as novel vision. Any realistic appraisal of the next few years of history and action to reshape the Western way of strategy has to be weighted heavily on the side of outcomes, not technical inputs, as the orientation for innovation. 

Originally posted March 30, 2021. Updated to integrate collapse in Afghanistan.

/ jgs

Author Info:

John G. Singer is the Executive Director of Blue Spoon Consulting, a global leader in strategy and innovation at a system level. Blue Spoon was the first to apply system thinking to solve complex market access and integration challenges in the pharmaceutical industry. John served as a squad leader in the US Army infantry for four years.

What Can Health Market Leaders Learn From the Sex Pistols?

What Can Health Market Leaders Learn From the Sex Pistols?

A Punk Rock Ethos of Disruption

It’s December 1, 1976, and the Sex Pistols are being interviewed on live television.

Appearing on the British Today show at the supper hour, the Pistols' frontman John Lydon (Johnny Rotten) responded to interviewer Bill Grundy’s command, “Say something outrageous,” by calling him a “dirty fucker” and a “fucking rotter.”

The newspapers put the Sex Pistols on the front page for a week with screaming headlines like “TV Fury Over Rock Cult Filth” and “Punk? Call It Filthy Lucre”. Members of Parliament denounced them.

“Anarchy in the U.K.” entered the charts at Number 43, but record company executives refused to handle it as EMI was fast buckling under the public pressure. The Pistols added to the outrage by refusing to apologize, and by doing long interviews in which they denounced the entrenched system of music ratings and sacred luminaries like Mick Jagger and Rod Stewart. They went on tour, traveling around the United Kingdom in a bus, arriving at gigs only to discover that they had been banned in the township. Out of twenty-one scheduled dates, the Sex Pistols played three.

So incendiary was their impact at the time that in their native England, the Houses of Parliament questioned whether they violated the Traitors and Treasons Act, a crime that carries the death penalty to this day. The Pistols would inspire the formation of numerous other groundbreaking groups, and Lydon would become the unlikely champion of a generation clamoring for change.

“No regrets,” proclaimed Malcolm McLaren, the Sex Pistols’ infamous manager, after the swearing-on-TV incident. “These lads … want a change of scene. What they did was quite genuine.” Here's the clip:

There are as many theories about why punk rock came to be as there are punk-rock progenitors, but like all good revolutions, this one was born out of deep discontent with the times. It was propelled by technical accessibility and entrepreneurship: it was simple and easy to pull off by pretty much anyone. In December 1976, the English fanzine Sideburns published a now-famous illustration of three chords, captioned "This is a chord, this is another, this is a third. Now form a band."

Punk was hardcore Zen, a completely different operating philosophy that undermined the integrity of the culture in which it was introduced. It altered what was meant by a 'new industry model', changing those deeply embedded habits of thought which give a system its sense of what is the natural order of things.

Or to frame it in terms of today's lexicon, punk was...innovative...disruptive....transformative. Nothing was sacred. You could lose yourself in a reactionary had-it-up-to-here fury while also fully savoring the rupture, the novelty of the moment as a cathartic split from convention and cliche.

Punk was a completely different wattage.

A Total Change in Context

Frost & Sullivan predicts the 'outcomes-based care' focus will scale and globalize dramatically, with at least 15 percent -- about $1.5 trillion -- of the $9 trillion healthcare economy worldwide tied to value-based models. Presumably, there will be an invisible hand doing the tying; left unsaid is whose invisible mind is guiding the invisible hand. (Maybe it's better to think of “value” itself as new market space to develop, where B2B strategy and sales will lead the way to above-average growth. Check out McKinsey on this here.) 

Critics say today's health market CEOs have proved unwilling or unable to shift their strategies to meet the demands of consumers accustomed to rapid, high-quality service in other industries. Writing in Modern Healthcare ("As Healthcare Changes, Systems Need to Broaden Search to Find Disruptive CEOs"), Harris Meyer describes the pressure on CEOs to adapt to a total change in context for strategy.

Incoming executive leadership, Meyer says, need a new frame of reference for how hospitals, pharmaceutical and medical device companies, and other delivery systems will be "transformed in the coming years into very different-looking organizations whose focus is on [new industry ecosystems] that keep patient populations healthy in the most cost-effective ways."

"With healthcare changing rapidly, hospital CEO positions turning over at a high rate, and baby boomer senior executives eyeing retirement, some hospitals and health systems realize their next leaders will need a different set of experiences and skills to successfully navigate that new world."

They're in need, it seems, of a Punk Rock vision, a radically different mindset that can navigate the transition and tension between entrenched and emerging modes of being.

The thing missing from the conventional perspective is new understanding: the pieces matter less than the whole, "things" are secondary to experiences. The new business value to extract from healthcare is not from the discrete use of applications or the latest cool tech pilot, but the way these components can meld together to interact and form a broader architecture for managing information.

Quoting CVS Health CEO Larry Merlo:

"[Industry] does not place enough of a focus on outcomes or managing the patient in a holistic way, and all of that leads to -- pick the adjective you want to use -- wasteful, avoidable, preventable spending that amounts to billions of dollars."

Read more of the January 1, 2019 interview with Merlo in the Richmond Times-Dispatch here: CVS got Aetna. Next up, reimagining health care

There are multiple billion-dollar business models and markets to develop based on improving outcomes and squeezing inefficiency from healthcare. (This week, Alphabet's Verily got $1 billion in a new funding round led by Silver Lake to execute its strategic focus on helping healthcare navigate the shift towards evidence generation and value-based reimbursement models.) The path to get there is to make technology so immersive that it disappears into the experience.

A New System of Markets

The next health economy solves for ‘market interoperability’ first, data interoperability second.

New market winners understand that “value” is created above and beyond a single organization — by a new system of markets intentionally designed to dissolve boundaries, produce coherence and deliver a stream of benefits over time. The economic models are positioned to serve (and sustain) 'continuous health engagement'. And if you buy into the logic that it's not just one market that improves outcomes, but many markets simultaneously and interactively, then advantage goes to those who are better at ‘system entrepreneurship’: the capability to re-conceptualize the premise of strategy itself.

At stake is a new category of growth and creative leadership.

Ultimately, health market fragmentation is a design problem. There are islands of features everywhere from too many vendors and too many markets wandering on the edges, pushing point solutions to small problems. The challenge is pulling it all together in a way that a whole system is born and becomes focused on generative value. The new data that flows from this new system, and then refined into specialized cognition, is the thing that generates new business value, supports population health and guarantees performance.

Data on purpose. You design for the analytics you want to capture.

Or to put it another way, the transformational remit for today's health market leaders is the ability to creatively explore and conceptualize a new territory, quickly assemble the intellectual viewpoint, and then design the new industry infrastructure -- the nervous system -- to own the space. Which is the role of “digital” in this story. It's value is expressed in the ability to dissolve boundaries, create new identities, remove friction and re-configure entire business systems, practically overnight.

Anger is an Energy

From the publisher's note to Anger is an Energy, John Lydon's autobiography:

"This autobiography is by John Lydon in his own wordsSometimes, the organization of those words does not conform to the traditional rules of grammar. In some cases, the reader will happen upon words not listed in the dictionary, or used in ways one might describe as "unorthodox." The publisher is aware of this -- they are not typos or misspellings we have missed; they are part of Mr. Lydon's unique "lingo" and, as such, have been given (mostly) free rein. As John might say, "Don't let riffles cause fraction."

We are now in the 50th year of the official US healthcare "crisis." For more than half a century, ballooning health care costs have been a source of concern, confusion, complexity and impending catastrophe to the American economy and employer operating margins when, on July 10, 1969, President Richard Nixon proclaimed, "We face a massive crisis in this area." Without prompt administrative and legislative action, he added at a special press briefing, "we will have a breakdown in our medical care system."

A Punk Rock solution breaks from the herd of independent minds passing as disruptive. It's about a shift in how to think, not in what to think. It's about using new words to think new thoughts.

Says Michael E. Porter, Harvard Business School and Co-Founder of the International Consortium of Health Outcomes Measurement (ICHOM) in teeing up #ICHOM2019 on May 2-3, 2019 in Rotterdam: "We are starting a transformation of what healthcare is, how we think about it, how we deliver it, how we measure it and the results we are actually achieving."

🤘

/ jgs

John G. Singer is Executive Director of Blue Spoon Consulting, a global leader in Strategy and Innovation at a System Level. Blue Spoon was the first to apply systems theory to solve complex market access and integration challenges in the pharmaceutical industry.

Originally published as “Healthcare Needs a Punk Rock Vision” on LinkedIn, January 3, 2019


Who Wins the Award for Health System Value?

Who Wins the Award for Health System Value?

MedAdNews is a trade publication covering the business of pharmaceutical marketing. It’s like Advertising Age and Adweek, in that its editorial serves and celebrates an economic subsystem of advertising and communications agencies, except MedAdNews is focused on the services bought by pharmaceutical brand teams to create the content to position and promote prescription drugs directly to consumers and health care professionals.

It’s big business.

In 2016 alone, according to the Journal of the American Medical Association, the pharmaceutical industry as a whole invested somewhere around $30 billion on prescription drug advertising, promotion, public relations, disease awareness and sales campaigns across audiences, channels and therapeutic categories. The overwhelming majority swims in a sea of sameness, a monotonous repetition of banality flooding the zone whose signature is the “terminal smile” — the Standard Model looks like this:

Note: this is ad is not real.

It’s actually a parody campaign, a spoof, for a fictional medication to treat a fake psychological disorder. 

It was created by Australian artist Justine Cooper as a social satire on drug promotion. Cooper intended the exhibit to be humorous. She recreated the entire drug marketing process, starting from the invention of a new disorder to the branding process of naming the drug, its pill and logo design, and promotional merchandise. The campaign was on display at the Daneyal Mahmood Art Gallery in New York City from February 8 to March 17, 2007 and included TV, print and billboard ads along with merchandise and branding material.

“It's just like any other advertising campaign and web site devoted to a drug, really -- the home page for Havidol features an attractive person smiling contentedly, a link to prescribing information, including a chemical formula, and the standard side effects spiel now familiar to anyone who's seen TV drug commercials,” wrote Melinda Wenner in her coverage of the exhibit for The Scientist (see “Designing a Disease -- and its Drug”). The site itself even contains TV and print ads, a self-assessment test to find out if Havidol is right for you, and customer testimonials. But look a bit closer. The drug is described as "the first and only treatment" for dysphoric social attention consumption deficit anxiety disorder, or DSACDAD -- termed "the #1 concern of contemporary life."

April is always special at MedAdNews. 

It’s the month where drug advertising agencies publish their profiles in the magazine and submit their best “creative” in the hopes of winning a Manny Award. The Manny Awards, says the magazine’s publisher, “pay tribute to the creative work of agencies serving the healthcare market, their people, and their contributions to the industry.”

The prelude to this year’s edition, beneath the headline “Another Year of Changes, Growth” sets the stage with this odd retrospective from its editors:

“In 30 years of the Manny Awards, many things — technology, medicine, and ways agencies do business — have changed. But the healthcare ad industry continues to thrive and adapt to the new demands for relevance and creativity.

Think of where you were 30 years ago. Were you already working in healthcare advertising? Were you still in college or just graduated? Or were you in high school….?

Now think about what the media world was like 30 years ago. Network television was still king. The primary places to advertise were newspapers, magazines and radio, as well as direct mail.

And the internet was not really a thing.”

The gala ceremony announcing the many Manny winners (there were 40 categories, ranging from Best Managed Markets Campaign to Best Consumer Campaign - Radio/TV) was April 18. Which, as it turns out, coincided with the publication in JAMA of an editorial, “Lowering Cost and Increasing Access to Drugs Without Jeopardizing Innovation.”

The authors of the JAMA editorial are Robert M. Califf, MD, a former FDA Commissioner now at Duke University School of Medicine, and Andrew Slavitt, a former Acting Administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. They begin their view this way:

“US drug costs have reached unacceptable and unsustainable levels. Evidence shows that “financial toxicity” arising from drug costs and other medical expenses is reducing financial security for many families, and prompting difficult choices, as patients defer or forgo therapies they cannot afford.

In stark contrast, comparable countries negotiate drug prices and use drugs more effectively. Recent data suggest that other high-income countries have an average life expectancy approximately 3 to 5 years longer than that of the United States, which ranks last among high-income countries and is losing ground compared with peer nations. Although drug prices account for only part of these trends, they nevertheless add to disparities that dominate the trajectories of US health outcomes.”

They go on to give their perspective on the impact of drug promotion:

“Direct-to-consumer advertising, detailing, and excessive physician payments also drive up costs. A particularly troubling issue to health professionals is the increasingly brazen use of the internet, social media, and television for marketing based on marginal or unproven benefits under the protection of current legal interpretation of First Amendment rights.

Which brings us back to the central question of this post: should we continue paying tribute to the Standard Model of pharmaceutical marketing?

At a system level, the strategic effect of $30 billion a year on drug promotion in the United States, woven into the fabric of society over decades, has been to embed and sustain a feedback loop of deep mistrust, reputational fragility and pricing challenges with tangential impacts worldwide. See here for China, China Solidifies Drug-Buying Program That Saved $41 Billion; and here for Japan, Double-Digit Slashes to Hit 44 Major Drugs in 2022 Price Revision.

The feedback loop makes it hard for the industry’s “value” narrative to punch through and persuade, particularly against the opacity, complexity and information asymmetry of PBMs; it also feeds an ever bigger flywheel of dysfunction in a system of markets locked in stasis, managed by strategic atrophy, where ‘check-the-box’ roadmaps and PowerPoints cut-and-paste the same assemblage of words, doing little to spark creative leadership, the kind that can guide a $4 trillion health economy out of stagnation in imagination (for an excellent perspective, see Why Isn’t Innovation Helping Reduce Health Care Costs? in Health Affairs).

Another Market Forecast Meets a New Market Reality

A basic problem confronting structural change is vision to see new aspects of reality. 

This includes surfacing deep assumptions and challenging the conventional view. Pharmaceutical companies are generally trying to solve problems of efficiency and optimization around better drug development and promotion. This is the wrong set of problems. The pharmaceutical industry, like many other industries and governments throughout the world, is flailing to find strategic fit because it has not adapted to the breakdown of Industrial Age ideas.

It's legacy thinking -- not technology -- that's maybe the biggest barrier to navigating the transition space to a new era. Leadership teams become kinetically-trapped in outmoded structures, orientations, incentives and schools of thought, doomed to be, always, in defense of whatever business model allowed them to be successful in the first place. The inertia of the Industrial Age mesmerizes us. And so the commercial withering continues.

Biogen is a case in point:

The approval of Aduhelm for Alzheimer’s had prompted the investment analysts at RBC to put 2026 sales expectations for the drug at $7.5 billion, while Leerink pencilled in $8.2 billion. But the ground truth is always different than policy projections and intelligence estimates and market forecasts. In its latest earnings report, Aduhelm brought in just $1 million in sales in the fourth quarter, compared to already diminished estimates of $2.8 million.

"When your back is against the wall, as a company, your base business is in decline, and investors don't believe in the pipeline that you have, M&A becomes much more important," Mizuho analyst Salim Syed said following the earnings call. "How transformative of a deal should we or could we expect in 2022? That's the question."

Tilt.

It’s too….linear….to point the finger of blame at any one character in the story of strategic collapse at Biogen. Reality is too complex to cleave so cleanly. Biogen is/was in the grips of its own feedback loop keeping the old disorder in place.

From the fiduciary responsibility of managing a publicly-traded company and the quarterly pressure to demonstrate growth and shareholder value, to the regulatory and policy context governing the rules of play in the pharmaceutical market, to an entire economic subsystem of vendors geared to launching and then sustaining what held the promise of becoming “one of the biggest launches in biopharma history,” the system itself could not see the structural change happening in its operating environment, nor reorient its thinking accordingly. 

Common sense and the real-world were systemically forced-out of consideration by deeply-rooted analytical models; “optimized” solutions involved narrowly-framed decisions taken by specialists; isolated data feeds were pointing positive, but could not describe an overall failure in strategy; and management underestimated or misread the plate tectonics shaping the operating environment.

In other words, the paramount importance of Aduhelm sales, not only to Biogen but also for the galaxy of vendors feeding from its drug promotion budget, helped create the conditions for its failure.

The system destroyed itself.

Breaking the Standard Model

The new market reality that's emerging in the pharmaceutical industry is that the technical merits of a new drug are, more often than not, table stakes for business success. This is one reason why digital + drug discovery is an equation for the status quo, not commercial model innovation: the center-of-gravity for strategic thinking is still bounded in the context of the drug pipeline.

It’s time to get comfortable crossing the river while feeling for the stones. 

“We don’t know if we’re going to succeed, but what we do know is what’s in place today isn’t working,” said Novartis president Marie-France Tschudin, in describing a novel approach the company is testing for the launch of its new cholesterol drug. To overcome the Red Ocean Problem in the market for new heart medicines, Novartis is pursuing an unconventional strategy, “one that turns the traditional drug launch on its head.”

Rather than big media buys in campaigns to win support from individual physicians (in Manny language, this promotion would fit in the categories of “Best Professional Campaign - Web” and “Best Professional Campaign - Print”) and demand from patients, Novartis is instead focusing on ‘value alignment’ with the business and technology agendas of the people who run large integrated delivery networks, an entirely different customer. The full story is here: Novartis Rethinks Sales Strategy for New Cholesterol Drug Launch

It’s the space in between “healthcare” and “life sciences” that is now ripe as source material for new storylines of value. This is one reason why Kenneth C. Frazier, Merck’s Executive Chairman and former CEO, joined General Catalyst last year. Frazier’s initial area of focus will be to help drive collaborative partnerships with healthcare companies and the pharma industry, a sector that General Catalyst believes is “under-leveraged” as an enabler of market innovation.

It’s a different thesis entirely.

The premise for strategy is based on the view that the pharmaceutical industry has kinetic potential to lead large-scale system change, rather than become a victim of it, and that that power is untapped at best, and misdirected at worst.

The conceptual impact from Biogen’s CMS slap down should be felt this way this: the Standard Model of pharmaceutical marketing is now operating outside the bounds of rationality. The “creative” in short supply is a new language from which to channel strategic imagination.

But then, who wins a Manny?

🤘

Originally published as a LinkedIn post on May 2, 2019; updated to integrate perspective on latest developments from Biogen, Novartis and General Catalyst

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John G. Singer is Executive Director of Blue Spoon Consulting, a global leader in Strategy and Innovation at a System Level. Blue Spoon was the first to apply systems theory to solve complex market access and integration challenges in the pharmaceutical industry.

Why Digital + Drug Discovery Misses the Mark

Why Digital + Drug Discovery Misses the Mark

The first transformation to make is in how you think about it.

The future of strategy in the pharmaceutical industry is broader than pharmaceuticals; it also lies in servicing health. More specifically, the new center-of-gravity for competition lies in transitioning away from an industrial-era view of 'market' bounded within the context of discovering, pricing and promoting the technical merits of a physical product (i.e., drug), to a model based on embedding "drug" within entirely new ‘infrastructure for outcomes’.

You compete by creating a new dominant context.

It's the story at a system level that becomes the locus of innovation. The narrative transcends online, offline and the line in-between, solving multiple problem spaces, reshaping every important kind of relationship among all businesses, vendors and people. Strategy at a system level deals in quantity of effects; not one thing, many things simultaneously and interactively.

This is about a new form of leadership to create and communicate, a 'big design' vision that more closely aligns product cycles with helping customers meet their business objectives, ‘value alignment’ on shared marketspace. Because as it turns out, solving for deep and radical fragmentation is what pharmaceutical customers -- payers + providers + consumers ("patients" and caregivers) -- are looking for:

Cigna CEO David Cordani on Thursday [November 1, 2018] said the addition of the pharmacy benefit manager Express Scripts will help the health insurer offer a “more integrated approach that addresses the whole person.”

The ask is for 'new wholes' and models of care. And it's coming from customers worldwide.

Here is the perspective from the NHS, as framed by James Roach, Director, Accountable Care Partnership, West Essex Health and Care System and one of the frontline NHS leaders given the task of transforming fragmented local health and social care services into integrated systems:

"Given the challenges in the landscape, and the changing tone at NHS England and the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC), the industry has a new opportunity to position itself as the catalyst for change. Having a comprehensive offer can add value to systems in many different ways."

Roach goes on to say pharma should fully commit to joint working arrangements in real terms with equal risk and gain share on both sides. "We need to foster a business-to-business type relationship, and set a clear direction of travel over the next 5-10 years..."

No Country for NRx

Strategy requires a sense of the whole that reveals the significance of the respective parts.

There's a difference between bringing a new drug to market vs. bringing a new outcome to market. Not understanding the difference can be an expensive lesson in strategic fit to a new operating environment, as Teva recently discovered (See: Teva Stands By Migraine Strategy After Ajovy Misses Boat On Express Scripts Deal).

Amgen in late October reduced the list price of Repatha by a blow-up-your-market-thesis 60 percent (see Amgen Cuts Cholesterol Drug’s Price 60% After Weak Sales), saying the new price will improve affordability by lowering patient copays, especially for Medicare patients. [Repatha is a PCSK9 inhibitor, part of a new class of biologics that also includes Praluent from Sanofi and Regeneron; both are used to reduce the risk of cardiovascular events and cholesterol in patients with heart disease.]

Repatha had US sales of $225 million in 2017, according to Amgen’s annual report. When they first launched, expectations were sky-high for the PCSK9 class ("an exciting new era in lipid lowering"); Repatha sales were forecast to hit more than $3.5bn in 2020.

Growth based on outcomes is increasingly less about analyzing and conceptualizing "drug" and drug pricing in isolation, regardless of how sophisticated the science and technology and digital used to win regulatory approval. Rather, it will be about mastering, marketing and monetizing system change.

Business as Abnormal

The soon-to-be $20 trillion global system of markets that constitute "healthcare" is transitioning to an entirely new context, one reaching for and re-orienting itself to compete on outcomes. This is a new kind of market that has pretty much everyone groping their way through the white space.

Which is why Ian C. Read's (CEO of Pfizer) "business as normal" answer to an analyst's question about drug pricing was a bit of a head scratcher. The exchange came on Pfizer's Q3 earnings call on October 30 (revenue came in about 2 percent below estimates and a softer outlook on 2018 sales):

Umer Raffat, Evercore Group:

"I guess Ian, Albert, for both of you, so when the price increases were rolled back earlier this summer, there's an expectation that price increases could be instituted again if no concrete steps are taken on rebate. So I guess my question is, are you planning on putting them back on in January, your price increases? And has there been any dialogue or are you expecting any pushback from the administration when that happens?"

Ian Read:

"Thank you, Umer. Well, on pricing, what I'm trying to indicate is that we did voluntarily agree to defer price increases until the blueprint was implemented over the end of this year. We've been working with the President on parts of the blueprint. And I expect our approach by the end of the year will be, what I would characterize, as business as normal."

By any measure, pharmaceutical companies face an adaptive challenge to a changed context for business (see “Zealand becomes a lesson in the rigors of commercialization as a slow launch triggers 90% staff cut, CEO exit”). The whole framework for getting new medicines approved is evolving, the amount of revenue generated by new drugs is dropping, market theories are collapsing, and atomizing customers are awash in information and competing data claims.

For commercialization teams, the sketch for ‘market access innovation’ comes from finding proportionality in strategy, in aligning ends with means: less investing in “optimizing” product promotion with digital, more dissolving boundaries and servicing a system as a whole to improve its performance over time (ecosystem-centered market strategy).

Said another way, "digital transformation” in the pharmaceutical industry is a story of 'system value' and computational imagination. The new equation for market innovation in healthcare (+ life sciences) looks something like this: Ai + cloud + data + HEOR = 'Outcomes-as-a-Service'

You fit the mix to the moment. Whoever does the better job aggregating, sequencing and managing the infinite flow of inputs and insights that enable population health will have a sustainable business model attuned to the needs of customers.

It takes an ecological sensibility. Some are better at it than others.

The Problem That's Arrived

The realms of experience in healthcare are blurring at a blinding rate. Things are fuzzy; thought doesn't have time to ripen. The shift to make is in reordering imaginations, psychologies and objectives to change the economics of healthcare as an n-sided market.

What real-world evidence shows is that the problem that's arrived for the pharmaceutical industry is how to reposition itself strategically, how to get in front of change rather than become a victim of it. This is about forging a new alignment with customers, not simply imposing old promises of technology to reinforce the status quo.

The new methods of thinking about relevance, the composition of value and "drug brand" management which the pharmaceutical industry should adopt for itself need to be worked out simultaneously with the destruction of its history. Regeneration through degeneration. Technology, for the most part, is simply a means to end.

To underscore why in healthcare we need to replace unbounded enthusiasm for unlimited aspirations of technology with something more pragmatic, here are three data points worth considering:

  • Despite spending about 18 percent of GDP on healthcare ($3.5 trillion), life expectancyin the U.S. is expected to be only slightly better than that of Bangladesh by 2040. (In 2015, the total public health budget for all of Bangladesh was $2.3 billion.)

  • Markets and Markets currently predicts the market for health technology will reach $104 billion by 2020. Except that "doctors hate their computers" and at least 40 percent of technology and digitization projects either are abandoned or fail to meet business objectives. Some sources report 70 percent failure rates.

  • In 2017, the pharmaceutical industry spent 5.8 billion U.S. dollars on direct-to-consumer media advertising; between 2009 - 2017, the industry spent about $40 billion on advertising to consumers alone.

More to the point, the first transformation to make is strategic; the second is digital applied to enable the first. It's going to be expensive confusing the two 🤘

Originally published as a LinkedIn post on November 5, 2018; updated with latest developments from Zealand Pharma, Bluebird Bio, Biogen and Novartis

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John G. Singer is Executive Director of Blue Spoon Consulting, a global leader in Strategy and Innovation at a System Level. Blue Spoon was the first to apply systems theory to solve complex market access and integration challenges in the pharmaceutical industry.

Aduhelm and Strategic Collapse at Biogen

Comment

Aduhelm and Strategic Collapse at Biogen

The Aduhelm saga provides broader lessons in systemic failure. 

Biogen stock has plunged after reaching a six-year high in June last year, when Aduhelm was approved. The decline has wiped out more than $30 billion in Biogen’s market value, falling further after Biogen management disclosed in its earnings call last week that sales for Aduhelm were $1 million, missing the consensus estimate of $1.6 million, and issued weaker-than-expected financial forecasts for 2022.

Biogen also said that a $500 million cost-cutting program it announced in December would be expanded if the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services doesn’t not alter its decision that Medicare wouldn’t pay for Aduhelm except in the context of a clinical trial. Meanwhile, the “Biogen Departure Train Chugs On” — one week after Johanna Rossell, who served as Global Commercial Lead for Aduhelm, left for a leadership role at Enzyvant, two members of Biogen’s board said they are leaving.  

This past week, Wedbush analyst Laura Chico wrote that it’s “time for a change” at Biogen. She laid out three options: Buy something, get bought, or “sell it for parts.”

In its brief life as a brand, Aduhelm has been led by strategy at a technical level.

The drug is/was part of a broader neuroscience product development vision at Biogen, involving more than 30 clinical programs. “These include our investigations into several possible additional treatments for Alzheimer’s disease, as well as other debilitating neurological conditions such as Parkinson’s disease, ALS and stroke. We have spent more than $28 billion in research and development since 2003,” reads a statement the company issued at the time of approval.

(Not included in the $28 billion R&D are the fees and expenses for the army of vendors — an entire economic subsystem — Biogen used to create the drug promotion to consumers and health care professionals, the “disease awareness” campaigns, the media buy, and all the analytics behind the data. Also impossible to know is what Biogen is/was allocating for its information technology to support Aduhelm marketing and sales operations.)

When 2+2 = Oranges

A basic problem confronting structural change is vision to see new aspects of reality.

This includes surfacing deep assumptions and challenging the conventional view. Pharmaceutical companies are generally trying to solve problems of efficiency and replication around better drug development and promotion. This is the wrong set of problems. Biogen and the pharmaceutical industry, like many other industries and governments throughout the world, are flailing to find strategic fit because they have not adapted to the breakdown of Industrial Age ideas.

It's legacy thinking -- not technology -- that's maybe the biggest barrier to navigating the transition space to a new era. Leadership teams become kinetically-trapped in outmoded structures, orientations, incentives and schools of thought, doomed to be, always, in defense of whatever business model allowed them to be successful in the first place.

It’s too….linear….to point the finger of blame at any one character in the story of Aduhelm collapse. Reality is too complex to cleave so cleanly. Biogen is/was in the grips of a massive flywheel keeping the old disorder in place.

From the fiduciary responsibility of managing a publicly-traded company and the quarterly pressure to demonstrate growth and shareholder value, to the regulatory and policy context governing the rules of play in the pharmaceutical market, to an entire economic subsystem of vendors and advisors geared to launching and then sustaining what held the promise of becoming one of the biggest "one of the biggest launches in biopharma history,” the system itself could not see the structural change happening in its operating environment, nor reorient its thinking accordingly.

In other words, the paramount importance of Aduhelm sales, to Biogen and for the many industrial subsystems feeding from its drug promotion budget, helped create the conditions for the strategic collapse of Biogen:

Common sense and the real-world are/were systemically forced-out of consideration by deeply-rooted analytical models; “optimized” solutions involve/involved narrowly-framed decisions taken by specialists; isolated data feeds are/were pointing positive, but cannot/could not describe an overall failure in strategy; and management underestimates/underestimated or misreads/misread the plate tectonics.

The system destroyed itself.

It’s Hard to See The End of Things

Change comes in three wavelengths, says Kevin Kelly, a co-founder of Wired Magazine: There are changes to the game, changes in the rules of the game, and changes in how the rules are changed. 

And so what's emerging as the building blocks for strategic success today is agility, a management team who can see, understand and rapidly adapt to what can fairly be described as a total change in context in the landscape for business.

Existential crises abound.

The world is now littered with dying companies, markets and industries buying into the myth of a simple recipe, the allure of new technology, and an obsession with tradition as they search for optimal solutions that don’t exist. 

It’s the ‘leadership margin’ that now separates.

Said differently, opportunity comes from strategic leadership that can create the culture to collectively exploit structural change and find new identity in a world with hazy boundaries. To lead the next cycle of evolution in healthcare, we need to shift our creative and analytic focus to the system level, not the constituent parts.

"Healthcare" in the United States is a 'nested market', one massive and ever-expanding complex of interactions in a $4 trillion health economy that is wrongly understood, rewarded and regulated as isolated and independently operating spheres. 

It’s time for management teams in industry + government to recognize, quickly, the foundational fragility of the Western mode of linear thinking – of breaking things apart to study them -- and understand that the weapons of mass entrenchment keeping the structural stalemate in healthcare alive are more conceptual than they are technical. 

Seeing and thinking in terms of systems is the mother lode to mine for a new imagination, the kind of creative leadership that solves for strategic atrophy. This isn't a moral argument about "doing the right thing,” but an understanding that radical forces are changing not just the rules of the game, but the game itself. 

Poor strategy is expensive.

The skill in short supply is not technical, but visionary, able to articulate and propagate a new direction, and manage the transition to market innovation. For the pharmaceutical industry, I would argue that the biggest learning from Aduhelm is this: there’s a difference between bringing a new drug to market and bringing a new outcome to market.

🤘

/ jgs

John G. Singer is Executive Director of Blue Spoon Consulting, a global leader in Strategy and Innovation at a System Level. Blue Spoon was the first to apply systems theory to solve complex market access and integration challenges in the pharmaceutical industry.

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What is "Value" in Healthcare?

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What is "Value" in Healthcare?

“Value” in healthcare has become the source of a particular pattern of morbidity.

It’s the vague word that has become the vogue word, more conceptual duct tape holding the PowerPoints and marketing content together than it is novel economic direction. Like the conjoined twins “digital” and “transformation” riding double on the slow-horse of meaning, it’s become a signal of virtue at the extreme end of redundancy, a generalized aspiration in a complex system of markets loosely bound within the context of healthcare.

It is less a vision for framing and formulating market innovation, a different orbit of originality and influence, but root cause for stagnation and strategic atrophy, as repetitively monotonous as “patient centricity”.

Quoting Lionel Robbins of the London School of Economics, who in 1932 quipped this nugget: “We all talk about the same things, but we have not yet agreed what it is we are talking about.”

Two years ago, in what can arguably be described as an industry first at recognizing the need to resolve the ‘narrative problem’ in healthcare, Humana – a for-profit American health insurance company with revenue of $77 billion in 2020 -- convened some of the healthcare industry’s greatest minds to build a consensus on the definitions of oft-used but nebulous concepts such as ‘value-based care’ and ‘population health’.

There was just one problem: The experts couldn’t figure it out, either.

Although the participants apparently found some common ground on what “value-based payment” is, they couldn't agree when it came to “value-based care.”

The 18 panelists — which included representatives from Humana, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, the Geisinger Health System, the University of Pennsylvania and Centene Corporation (but notably did not include representatives from the pharmaceutical or medical device markets) — agreed, for instance, that value-based care should apply to both individuals and populations and would be determined by measuring cost.

But they were divided about whether ‘patient experiences’ should be highlighted, how to cohere markets on a standard for outcomes or whether there should be a duration factor in calculating value.  “I was actually a little surprised,” Meredith Williams, M.D., market president for Humana based in Louisville, Kentucky, told FierceHealthcare at the time. “I thought there would be more consensus. It was a very revealing process to all involved.” (Read FierceHealthcare’s coverage of the conference here).

Around the same time, Merck encountered a similar static drift working with Optum, part of United Healthcare, the largest health insurance company in the United States with revenue of $287 billion in 2021, on a project to define “outcomes that matter to patients” and then, presumably, advance shared business goals around improving said outcomes.

They collaborated on a “Learning Laboratory” to explore different outcomes-based risk-sharing agreements for drugs Merck was developing to prevent Alzheimer’s disease and clostridium difficile (C-diff) infection, an acute bacterial condition that can be treated in either inpatient or outpatient settings.

The narrative problem — the role of language itself — again surfaced as the obstacle:

“Throughout our work together [with Optum], we realized there were a variety of gaps between our languages, methods, and value drivers,” said Susan Shiff, Senior Vice President of Merck and head of the company’s Center for Observational and Real World (CORE) organization at the time. “Our work is not remotely close to done. But we’re closing in on the first — and, perhaps, most important — goal: mutual understanding.”

They published their struggle with ‘value alignment’ shortly afterward in Health Affairs, available here (Defining Value—The Foundation Of Outcomes-Based Risk-Sharing Agreements).

To examine this tension and encourage “light bulb moments” about how best to define value in a way that is, well, valuable, Advisory Board, acquired in 2017 by UnitedHealth Group and a private equity firm in a $2.58 billion deal, hosted its second biennial Cross-Industry Value Summit on November 7-8, 2021 (the first occurred in 2019, around the same time as Humana’s conference and Merck’s collaboration with Optum). The “exclusive gathering” convened 30 leaders from across the health care economy, including payers, providers, life sciences, tech, advocacy, and other thought leaders.

“The annual Cross-Industry Value Summit (affectionately known as CIVS) convenes leaders from across the health care industry for a series of candid, interactive discussions designed to unpack and examine what “medical value” means — and how that differs based on a stakeholder’s vantage point,” wrote a research analyst at the Advisory Board in a summary promoting the event for the company’s website.

“While most health care leaders agree that value is some version of benefit over cost, the details get complicated quickly. Are we talking about clinical or financial benefit? Cost to whom? Benefit for whom? Over what time horizon? The answers often depend on who you ask.”

All “value-based care models” are fundamentally “anti-inpatient,” says Sachin H. Jain, chief executive of the SCAN Group, in a recent Twitter post. “Done right, they deliver intensive outpatient care to obviate hospitalizations and deliver care in lower cost sites of service (i.e. the home). Done wrong they are about coding and utilization management.”

“This notion explains why so much so-called “value-based” care by health systems whose primary business is inpatient hospital care is so far from it. Just ask any hospital system “ACO” or “value-based” care leader how successful the system wants her/him to be.”

Thus proving the maxim: any large system is going to be operating most of the time in failure mode.

Healthcare is impaled on the twin horns of an economic dilemma: revenue and growth have been designed, and are now calcified, around administrative platforms bound within the context of care (and earnings) delivered in the clinical setting. We need a new grammar for “strategy”: our definitions no longer fit people’s lived experiences. Look no further than the American Hospital Association’s definition of “population health management” : “the process of improving clinical health outcomes of a defined group of individuals through improved care coordination and patient engagement supported by appropriate financial and care models.”

It’s the sound of one hand clapping. Missing from the AHA’s narrow vision are the words from which to reorient the economics of its market to enable “new financial models” positioned with an outcomes-first mindset: “caregiver” and “community” and “home”.

The difficulty of finding a new language for the business of healthcare….a non-fragmentary worldview….to encompass complex societal trade-offs, and to order them in a sensible and agreeable fashion, sits at the heart of the discursive war keeping healthcare “models” in the United States locked in misunderstanding and structural stalemate.

We are struggling to decide how to decide.

(+ Life Sciences) to Solve the Breakthrough Problem

The definition of a “system” is anything that talks to itself.

It makes no sense to talk of “value in healthcare” or “building [new] integrated care systems” without simultaneously integrating the pharmaceutical and/or medical device markets into the design vision.

But yet we consistently deal in fragments.

To wit the 5 Critical Priorities for the U.S. Health Care System, an article in the December 2021 Harvard Business Review by Marc Harrison, president and CEO of Salt Lake City-based Intermountain Healthcare. It concludes with an aspiration that only exposes the meta-problem in healthcare: a sort of creeping sameness in our storylines:

“Without a faster shift to value-based care, the cost of health care in the United States will continue to rise. That is not sustainable for both provider institutions and patients. For many Americans, health care is already unaffordable and difficult to access. Those problem will only worsen if costs are not brought under control.

The pandemic has made the path that U.S. health care must take crystal clear. The question is whether provider organizations and private and public insurers not already on this path understand that it is the only way to realize a system that delivers better care — care that does a better job of keeping patients healthy — and is financially sound.”

We’ve normalized cliche.

There’s the illusion of imagining that there is a thing called “healthcare” that is separate from the pharmaceutical and medical device markets, which combined is around $2 trillion worldwide. It’s as if there’s some sort of partition between the two industry systems, a kind of thought that treats the components of health as inherently divided. The reality is that “healthcare” is a ‘nested market’ — everything has “value” in some way or another.

Writing in Health Affairs this week (see Value Assessment’s “Leaky Bucket” Problem Needs To Be Addressed), Kimberly Westrich and Robert W. Dubois of the National Pharmaceutical Council, struggle to square the ‘value alignment’ circle:

“Any discussion about how to allocate the value from such new therapies between society’s competing interests — in adequate returns to manufacturers to encourage future investment on one hand and in lower prices to ensure sustainable levels of spending by payers and patients on the other— means taking a step back and confronting fundamental [definitions] about value, value measurement, and the implications of “leakage” in value measurement.”

Better, I think, to understand “value” as a flow, not an end state.

“Market access innovation” follows the Amazon model of aggregation and progressive integration of markets: ‘brand-as-service’ business models and new industry ecosystems where ‘intrasystem goals’ come first.

For the pharmaceutical industry, this is new space of opportunity to lead with new system vision, to elevate health economics and outcomes research to a starring role, as a new science of synthesis enabling new economic thinking and new markets, a biological orientation to strategy (more like systems biology, the study of biological systems whose behavior cannot be reduced to the linear sum of their parts’ functions).

“Value creation” is never static or complete, but an unending process of movement and unfoldment, where opportunity runs in several directions at once. Said differently, “value” in healthcare (+ life sciences) is really about ‘value in use’ — value in motion — and the process to produce socially useful change.

It’s time for the invisible mind behind the invisible hand to start working with a wider frame.

New commercial logic starts by seeing healthcare + life sciences as a single organism, as one economic system where the ‘production of health’ (not “price” of a piece to health analyzed in isolation from its environment) is positioned at the conceptual center for ‘modern strategy’ powered by creative leadership: a different set of ideas, concepts, and statistics that aggregate actual people and things, real networks of production and reproduction.

More simply:

“Healthcare” needs new words to think new thoughts. Until we find them, the head-scratching continues.

🤘

/ jgs

John G. Singer is Executive Director of Blue Spoon Consulting, a global leader in Strategy and Innovation at a System Level. Blue Spoon was the first to apply systems theory to solve complex market access and integration challenges in the pharmaceutical industry.

Mentions of 'Value-Based' Care on Earnings Calls. 2008-2020

Insurers Are Talking A Lot About Value-Based Care (Source: Humana, Cigna, Aetna, UnitedHealth Group, WellCare Health Plans)

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